On the Sunday of the first round, a well-thinking part of the country woke up dreaming that they could live in a kind of Portugal and its social-democratic contraption. He went to sleep fearing he might live in a place prone to becoming an autocratic Turkey, at least given to voting conservatively and religiously.
The more adjusted polls of votes in the second round and the more chewed results of the first round better delineate this picture described here with the pen of mockery: we are not Portugal or Turkey. But you must have been able to understand the metaphor.
For those who still don’t understand, listen to Hamilton Mourão (Republicans), Bolsonaro’s deputy. Recently elected senator for Rio Grande do Sul, he defended the change in the composition of the Supreme Court. Jair Bolsonaro (PL) followed the same line. He has also reiterated that he wants a “Christian” STF. “Go see it”, as the people say.
Bolsonaro was pleasing more than anyone imagined. His government’s score is at the highest level in the Datafolha series of polls: 37% “great/good”. It was the approval I had during the duration of the emergency aid, in the second half of 2020.
The balance of the assessment is still negative, as the government has 40% of “bad/very bad”. But by the final quarter of 2021, it had dropped to 53% “bad/very bad”. Poverty exploded in 2021 without help and without a job, at the worst of the epidemic’s slaughter, this forgotten one.
With the rapid increase in the number of jobs, earlier this year, Bolsonaro has recovered, much more than previously thought. But the economics of everyday life, employment and inflation, don’t seem to explain much of this election. Speaking of other matters, it should be noted that, in this second round, Bolsonaro beats Lula by 66% to 34% among evangelicals.
Among those who claim to have a monthly family income above 2 minimum wages, Bolsonaro wins the election. These people are “rich” only in the cold income stratification statistic. Many of them want health insurance, not the SUS. They distrust the state. They want to undertake. For the rest, a good part of the people seem not to have cared about Social Security or labor reforms, the left’s lost battle horses. At least, almost half vote for those who defended them.
Lula da Silva (PT) has so far been blocking an even better result from Bolsonaro, but other numbers show the relative failure of the opposition.
Left and the like usually have something between a quarter or a little more of the votes for federal deputy. In 2018, they had 29.1%. In 2022, they dropped to 26.2%, in particular because of PSB and PDT. PT grew, but from 10.3% to 11.3%. With Lula pulling the vote, with Bolsonaro’s atrocities, with enormous poverty, with everything, just that grew.
Of course, local politics have long been dominated by downtown sub-captions. The left or anything else was never able to speak to this profound Brazil — and not even the PSDB of better times did. Lula spoke, still speaks. FHC and his Plano Real talked to these people. Your parties, much less.
The difference in this election is that the subtitles of the center became protagonists, are more right-wing and had even more voters. The PL, União Brasil, PP and Republicans bloc had 41.4% of the votes for the Chamber, an increase of almost 29% compared to 2018.
As Arthur Lira (PP-AL), prince of the center and one of the Bolsonarian regents, said, the elected Congress “was made for the permanence, maintenance of the Bolsonaro government for the next four years”.
A Lula victory messes up this scenario, obviously. But the PT and the left would play the rest of the championship in the fence. They need a new tactical and strategic scheme.
Chad-98Weaver, a distinguished author at NewsBulletin247, excels in the craft of article writing. With a keen eye for detail and a penchant for storytelling, Chad delivers informative and engaging content that resonates with readers across various subjects. His contributions are a testament to his dedication and expertise in the field of journalism.
