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Vaivém: With soy falling, gross value of agricultural production declines this year


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Soybeans determine a large part of the income of Brazilian agricultural producers. This year’s crop failure, when production was almost 20 million tons below production potential, caused the GVP (Gross Production Value) of the agricultural sector to fall 0.6%.

Traditionally with a strong pace of revenue growth, this is only the second year of decline in the oilseed’s GVP in ten years. The previous one was in 2019.

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Soybeans are expected to yield BRL 343 billion to producers within the gate, 11% less than in 2021. This drop could have been much greater if external and internal prices, due to demand, had not been kept high.

As a result, the country’s total VBP drops to R$1.19 trillion, after reaching R$1.2 trillion in the previous year, according to data from the Ministry of Agriculture. Last year, the production value had grown by 10.5%, compared to 2020.

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Despite the fall in the soybean crop, the GVP of crops (19 products) should total R$ 821 billion, with an increase of 0.9% over 2021. Cotton, coffee, corn and wheat will have good performances.

Livestock, after rising 5% last year, retreats 4% this year. Revenues from beef, pork and chicken fall, but those from milk, due to the increase in prices, rise.

Even with the drop in production, soybeans should add up to 29% of this year’s GVP. Corn and cattle come next with 13% each. Wheat, with the increase in production to a volume close to 10 million tons, will have a participation of 1.5% in the VBP, adding up to R$ 18 billion in revenues.

Exports of the soy complex (grains, bran and oil) will generate US$ 58 billion for the country this year, a figure that was hardly imaginable two years ago, when revenues reached US$ 35 billion.

The data are from Abiove (Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries), which estimates an output of 77 million tons of soybeans from the country this harvest. Last year, there were 86 million.

Wheat Emater/RS updated the cereal data in Rio Grande do Sul this Tuesday (11). The state sowed 1.46 million hectares and is expected to produce 4.68 million tons, 32% more than in 2021.

favorable demand Soybean oil exports are expected to rise to 2.2 million tonnes this year, 33% more than last year. Soybean meal increases to 18.7 million, 9% more.

Pig meat The price of protein fell last month and those of corn and soybean meal rose. Thus, when comparing the values ​​of meat with those of raw materials, the producer lost 7% in the exchange ratio.

pork 2 The retraction in prices made pork gain competitiveness in September, in relation to the others, according to Cepea (Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics).

Ethanol The production of plants in the central-south region dropped to 21.5 billion liters in the 2022/23 crop, a volume 5.8% lower than in the previous period.

Sugar Production dropped to 26.3 million tons in this harvest, which began in April, down 9.9% over the same period in 2021, according to Unica (Union of the Sugarcane and Bioenergy Industry).

heated demand The fertilizer company GiroAgro is expected to increase production this year to 10 million liters. Last year, there were 7 million. As a result, the exported volume could exceed 2021 by 50%.

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