Vaivém: Argentina has less wheat to sell, and Brazil exports more

The drought causes a drop in productivity in Argentine wheat crops, and this year’s harvest is expected to drop to 17.5 million tons, the lowest in five years.

In view of these new figures, the Usda (United States Department of Agriculture) revised the projection of Argentine foreign sales to 12.5 million tons this month, 1 million less than forecast in September.

As for Brazil, due to the record of the national harvest, close to 10 million tons, the estimate is for exports of 3.5 million in the 2022/23 harvest.

Wheat prices, which had been falling since June, rose again and, this Thursday (13), the December contract was at US$ 8.92 per bushel (27.2 kg) in Chicago, up 1 .1% on the day.

Cereal prices began to be affected by uncertainties in the Black Sea and low stocks in exporting countries. In the United States, the volume should fall to the lowest level since the 2007/08 harvest. Russia, on the other hand, will have the highest inventories in 30 years.

The average price per ton was US$459 in the United States and US$420 in Argentina, according to Usda. There was also a rise in product prices in Canada and the European Union.

In Australia and Russia, the increases were less pronounced because the countries had good harvests. The Russians, in addition to the record harvest, will have difficulties in placing the product on the foreign market, due to trade embargoes.

For the UK and EU, Usda forecasts lower inventories but higher consumption, mainly due to a switch from corn used in feed to wheat.

The export estimate from the European Union, which will have a larger harvest, rose to 35 million tons; that of the United States, with lower production, dropped to 23 million. Brazil will import 6.2 million, according to Usda.