Opinion – Vinicius Torres Freire: Bolsonaro stops bloodletting in polls, even with down economy

Jair Bolsonaro’s unpopularity diminishes a little, according to the Quaest survey for Genial Investimentos carried out in the first week of December. The negative rating dropped from 56% to 50% from November to this month. It dropped more in all regions of the country, except in the Northeast, where it remained the same (61% negative). The margin of error for this survey is 2.2 points, plus or minus.

The rejection at the ballot box remains almost the same and huge: this month, 67% of respondents said they would not vote for Bolsonaro; in November, 64%. But he stopped the bleeding, even with so much death, hunger and inflation.

A single poll or a swallow does not make a summer of improving presidential prestige. Trying to explain reasons for vote variation is already difficult considering long periods, let alone one month to another. But pay attention.

Are there any objective improvements in social and economic living conditions? Nothing that has significantly changed from November to December, for better or worse.

Inflation continues to run at around 10% a year, although the food shortage has slowed down a bit. But this in itself is not relevant, as prices continue to rise. The average real wage is falling.

For 70%, Bolsonaro deals negatively with inflation, in the Genial/Quaest survey; in the “generation of new jobs”, the evaluation is negative for 51%. In the “fight against Covid”, 47%.

Over the past year, the number of people with some type of work has increased by 9.5 million. It’s relevant, but it comes from far away. Perhaps the more persistent realization that it is possible to live off work again has eased the bad mood. Still, beak (work “self-employed”) is increasingly common (it used to occupy 22% of total employees in the still good years of 2012 and 2013; it’s 27% now).

Since mid-September, Bolsonaro has been doing and saying fewer atrocities in public, following the recommendation of his friends and accomplices of the center, the regents of his government. Suspended the coup rallies. The blather of nonsense and insults is less frequent, as is the news that is more blatantly negative. It could be a reason.

Everything else being constant and thinking about economic perspectives, insufficient to deal with politics, 2022 is a problem.

Inflation may deteriorate (falling from 10% a year to 5% in election month), but the refreshment will be small (it would take years of good growth for wages, even more of the poorest, to regain purchasing power lost in Bolsocaro inflation).

The number of employed people, with some employment, will increase again in 2022, but much more slowly, as the year will be one of stagnation in GDP, at best.

Auxílio Brasil will pay greater benefits (double, on average) for those who were on Bolsa Família (14.6 million) and for another 2.4 million new beneficiaries. But it will leave around 20 million people who received Emergency Assistance in the rain.

In short, the sum of the money distributed by these assistance benefits in 2021 will be more or less the same to be paid by Auxílio Brasil in 2022. It is difficult to calculate the political-electoral balance, but it should not be a big deal, for or against government.

The fact is that Bolsonaro stopped the bleeding. Sometimes, Decembers improve the image of government officials in polls; after parties, moods get worse, but it’s far from being the norm. Despite being rejected by two-thirds of the electorate, at the risk of Sergio Moro taking a few more points from him, without having anything to show for his achievements in 2022, apart from more lies, candidate Bolsonaro is still breathing.