Commodities Shuttle: Productivity to ensure record harvest, but first problems begin

The increase in productivity may guarantee a record harvest for the country in 2021/22, after the break in 2020/21, in relation to the potential initially foreseen.

Conab (National Supply Company) forecasts an average productivity 11% higher than the one that ended. Beans, wheat and corn stand out, with evolutions of up to 28%, as with the latter.

As a result, these products will generate a much larger production volume than the previous one. Soybeans will also perform well, but productivity remains stable, and production will come from area expansion, which was 3.7%.

For the first time, the country may reach 291 million tonnes of grain produced, a volume that will come from the 72 million hectares to be sown, according to data released on Thursday (9) by the official organ.

The volume to be harvested will come from record productions of soy (143 million tons), corn (117 million) and wheat (7.8 million).

The expected production potential comes from the new varieties adopted in the field and from the investments being made by farmers.

For Sergio De Zen, director of Agricultural Policy and Information at Conab, the producer had resources, coming from margins that are inviting for investments.

In addition to an improvement in cultural treatments, the producer is now able to increase the planting and harvesting pace, once he acquired new machines.

And this makes a big difference for the second crop, which also needs to be sown at the ideal time and record to guarantee good productivity.

The director of Conab warns, however, that there are still many variables to be won in this race for a super harvest.

First, the country will have to plant at the right time, and the climate is favorable. Second, the harvest should take place in record time and without rain interference, so that the off-season planting also has a normal rhythm.

Taking these variables into account so far, Conab makes its latest crop forecast for this year and estimates this record level of production.

However, the first problems begin. They are not generalized but should be considered. Rio Grande do Sul has an unfavorable climate in some areas, which is beginning to affect corn. Soybeans, for now, are being little impacted, according to the director of Conab.

This super harvest will influence prices, but De Zen believes that the expansion of world demand for grains, mainly for the production of proteins, should reduce the world market.

The Brazilian consumer will have a greater offer of beans, whose production rises to 3.1 million tons, 9% more than in the previous harvest. However, there will be a 2.5% decline in rice production, which will be 11.45 million tons.

The USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) also released crop numbers for the country and the world this Thursday. The world corn crop will be 1.21 billion tons, with consumption of 1.20 billion.

The world production of soy rises to 382 million tons, with estimated consumption of 377 million. Both production and consumption have increased 4%, compared to the previous harvest, according to the US agency.