Even in the face of timid growth in retail as vaccination progresses and physical stores resume activities, e-commerce in São Paulo should end 2021 with a 39% increase in sales, according to projections by FecomercioSP and NielsenIQ|Ebit.
Actual sales, after discounting inflation, are estimated at R$43.3 billion, R$12 billion more than 2020.
The value is driven by the sale of durable goods, such as electronics and household appliances, which registered a 46% growth in real sales compared to last year, reaching R$ 31.3 billion.
Durable goods, such as food, also increased by 29% (R$ 5 billion), and semi-durable goods, such as clothing and shoes, an increase of 19% (R$ 7 billion).
“Consumers bought more and at a higher price. There was a residual demand for durable goods, even from the first year of the pandemic, and people bought on the internet even with a drop in household income and indebtedness”, says Kelly Carvalho, economic advisor at FecomercioSP .
The sale of computers and home appliances peaked in 2020, when the social restrictions imposed by Covid-19 began and many Brazilians stayed at home. However, a considerable portion of consumers left to replace these items in 2021, a move that should not be repeated in 2022.
The expectation is for this sector to slow down next year, while non-durable goods should gain more share in online commerce. This movement has already been noticed on Black Friday this year, marked by the sale of basic items, such as food, beverages and hygiene products.
Fecomercio estimates that e-commerce will keep growing in 2022, even with the return of face-to-face activities, if possible given the omicron variant.
“When consumers understand that something is beneficial to them, it becomes part of their daily lives. In addition, digital payment methods, such as PIX, have attracted new consumers, such as those who do not yet have a credit card, for example, boosting sales”, says the entity.
More than 13 million new consumers made their first online purchase during the pandemic.
Although growth is high, ecommerce still has a low representation in the state’s total sales. The participation is 5.4%, compared to 3.6% in 2020.
The average amount spent increased compared to last year. In the second quarter, the increase was 20.4% (R$ 482), driven mainly by durable goods. These items, in addition to having greater added value, were impacted by inflation and the dollar.
The market expects a Christmas without expensive gifts, following the trend of Black Friday, which had lukewarm sales in physical stores and a drop in sales considering inflation.
According to Neotrust, which captures transactions from large networks and covers more than 80% of the digital market, the date’s turnover this year was R$ 5.4 billion, a nominal increase of 5.8% compared to 2020. NielsenIQ|Ebit calculated R$ 4.2 billion in sales, up 5%.
Considering inflation, which registers the biggest increase in 12 months since the beginning of 2016, sales fell 4.4% and 5.1%, respectively.
According to IBGE data, in the accumulated result for this year, up to October, total Brazilian retail registered an increase, estimated at 2.6%. In a 12-month period, there was also growth of 2.6%. The two rates, however, were already higher throughout 2021.
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