Airfare prices are not expected to fall, say industry representatives

Brazilian commercial aviation should have a summer of good recovery, with the creation of new routes and a rise in the number of travelers. However, the price of tickets is not expected to fall, according to representatives of the sector heard by Sheet.

In the last 12 months, air tickets in Brazil have increased by 47.35%, according to data from the IPCA-15 of September. In June this year, the 12-month rise reached 123%.

The main reason given for the increase is the increase in jet fuel, which accounts for more than a third of the cost of flying. The price of fuel rose 64.3% between January and August this year in Brazil. according to an estimate by Abear, an entity that brings together the companies.

On Wednesday (5), OPEC+ decided to adopt the biggest cut ever made in oil production since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, which should generate a new rise in fuel prices, including kerosene.

Fuels had already risen sharply this year as a result of the Ukrainian War. The rise in the dollar, the uncertainties regarding the Brazilian election and the international scenario are pointed out as other reasons for the rise in travel prices. As tickets are usually sold out weeks or months in advance, airlines need to try to predict what costs will be in the near future.

At the same time, demand for tickets has grown, both in tourism and in the corporate segment. In August, global aviation reached 73% of the movement it had before the pandemic, with an average occupancy of planes at 81%.

“The price of tickets has a very large equation of demands and costs. We are having a solid demand. But when looking at costs, it’s a miracle that airlines are still operating. We have a very big cost challenge scenario , mainly in relation to oil and the exchange rate”, says Campos, from Azul. “It’s not a matter of falling or not. [a tarifa]. Everything will depend on what will happen in the cost scenario”, says Fábio Campos, director of institutional relations at Azul.

In addition to the rise in kerosene, companies are still dealing with pandemic liabilities. “Many passengers who had tickets held during the pandemic and did not opt ​​for a refund are rescheduling their tickets for now and companies need to accommodate them”, ponders Ricardo Catanant, director of Anac.

“The demand for air tickets comes before some signs of economic recovery. And this demand has been strong. Sometimes, companies are not able to quickly resume the offer of services. This implies a series of challenges, such as bringing return planes that had been returned or were in a state of preservation, and to rehire professionals, who will need to undergo training”, explains Catanant.

Cláudio de Carvalho, president of Saesp (Sindicato dos Aeroviários de São Paulo), considers that personnel expenses are lower. “Companies are recovering the network with fewer employees. The company’s motto is more with less. One of the three big companies has almost 90% of the network it used to have, but with 33% less personnel costs. with a lower salary”, he asks.