Bolsonaro’s vote improves in cities that receive the most Aid Brazil

President Jair Bolsonaro’s (PL) vote in the cities that most receive Auxílio Brasil improved in the first round of elections compared to 2018, when he ran for the presidency for the first time.

Between the first round of 2018 and 2022, Bolsonaro obtained fewer valid votes – it fell from 46% to 43.2%. But in cities where, proportionally, more residents receive the benefit, the scenario is different. The president’s electoral performance improved in the comparison between votes.

Bolsonaro managed to raise the vote by 3.6 percentage points in municipalities with more than 25% of the population covered by the social program.

In the 397 cities that receive the most income transfers, the valid vote for the president increased from 16.53% to 20.18%.

By boosting Auxílio Brasil, the chief executive’s campaign hoped to improve his electoral performance among the electorate in which former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) has more political strength.

In all, there are 397 cities where more than 25% of the population receives income transfers, and 348 of these cities are in the Northeast region – a region that historically has a preference for the PT.

Polls of voting intentions showed that Bolsonaro managed to advance in popularity in this segment, but, until the eve of the first round vote, he was still far from the level reached by the PT.

The Bolsonarista campaign believes that the political effect of the expansion of Auxílio Brasil, which in August rose to, on average, R$ 607 per month, should only become more evident as the second round approaches.

Some of the president’s allies complain that this measure, which was one of Bolsonaro’s main electoral bets, was implemented too late.

Although Bolsonaro only defeated Lula in six of the cities with the most Aid Brasil, the president managed to increase the margin of valid votes in this group.

The assessment of the Bolsonaro government has improved marginally among Auxílio Brasil recipients.

In Jacareacanga, Pará, Bolsonaro’s vote jumped 23 percentage points – it rose from 21.9% of votes valid four years ago to 45.23% in Sunday’s election (2).

More than half (52%) of the population of Jacareacanga is beneficiary of Auxílio Brasil.

In Anapu, Pará, the president took second place in 2018 against Fernando Haddad (PT). But now he is leading the vote against Lula. Bolsonaro grew from 41.8% to 57.2% of valid votes,

Bolsonaro managed, with the support of Congress and circumventing spending control rules, to raise the average amount of the social benefit to more than R$600. In November 2021, still under the president’s command, the program paid approximately R$230 per family.

In addition to increasing the amount transferred, the flow of money to Auxílio Brasil has allowed the inclusion of 6.18 million new families since November last year, when the program was launched.

Although Auxílio Brasil has reached a record in the number of families (20.65 million), coverage is still far from the performance of emergency aid, which was created in April 2020 to serve the most vulnerable population with the arrival of the coronavirus in the country. country.

The benefit reached almost 40 million households. With that, the government made a strong expansion of social spending, and Bolsonaro saw his popularity rise – from the fourth month of payment.

To mitigate the negative impact of the end of the aid on the president’s popularity, the government bet on Auxílio Brasil and for this purpose sponsored two PECs (proposed amendments to the Constitution) to escape budget limitations and increase funding for the program.

as showed the Sheetthe entry of new families mainly benefited states where the president was defeated by Fernando Haddad (PT) in 2018 and, during the campaign, tried to improve his image with an eye on reelection.

The president’s campaign had no hope of being able to reverse Lula’s favoritism scenario in the region, but hoped to improve Bolsonaro’s performance in these states.

In addition to increasing the value of the income transfer, Bolsonaro extinguished the name Bolsa Família – associated with PT governments. The strategy was to create a brand for the president in the social area.

In the first year of government, Bolsonaro did not give priority to Bolsa Família, which had a waiting list of almost 1.5 million families.

In the cities that received the most amendments, Bolsonaro also rose

During the government, President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) doubled the number of parliamentary amendments, which are budget resources used by deputies and senators to finance projects and works in their respective electoral strongholds.

This mechanism expanded Bolsonaro’s political base, giving support and capillarity to the campaign.

The president also registered an increase in valid votes in the cities that were most supplied by the rapporteur’s amendments, which are distributed based on political criteria determined by the summit of Congress and favors allies of the Planalto Palace.

As a result, the share of the Budget reserved for amendments jumped from approximately BRL 15 billion in 2019, the first year of government, to BRL 33.9 in 2022 – the election year.

In the thousand cities that received the most amendments from the rapporteur since the beginning of the Bolsonaro administration, the president managed to increase the margin of valid votes in 727 municipalities.

His valid vote rose 31.80% in the 2018 election against Haddad (PT), to 33.80% in this year’s race against former President Lula.