President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) numerically reached the best levels of vote intention and government evaluation among people who receive Auxílio Brasil or live with someone who is a beneficiary of the program, according to the third round of the Datafolha survey carried out after the first. election round.
The new numbers are now close to what was verified in the first survey carried out after the vote.
The share of respondents who said they will vote for the current president went from 37% to 33% in the first two surveys and has now reached 40%. Considering only valid votes, it went from 40% to 35% and 42%, respectively.
56% of voters consulted said that they will vote for former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in the second round, compared to 62% in the previous poll and 56% in the first round. In the valid votes, the PT rose from 60% to 65% and 58%, respectively.
The margin of error is four percentage points for this audience.
The survey, which heard 2,912 people in 181 cities between Tuesday (17) and Thursday (19), was commissioned by Sheet and by TV Globo and is registered with the Electoral Court under number BR-07340/2022.
Among people who do not receive the benefit, voting intentions have practically not changed in these three weeks and are now at 46% for PT and 47% for Bolsonaro.
Voters benefiting from the aid represent 26% of respondents.
Among voters from families who are on the program, 53% said they would “certainly” vote for Lula, compared to 59% a week earlier and 55% in the first round. For Bolsonaro, the percentage of certainty rose, respectively, from 36% to 32% and 37% in the three surveys.
When all respondents are considered, whether they have benefited from the program or not, Lula has 49%, and Bolsonaro, 45% of the voting intentions at the moment.
Lula leads by 57% to 37% in the electorate that earns up to two minimum wages. Among those who earn from two to five minimums, Bolsonaro has an advantage: 52% to 43%. The current president maintains the lead over PT in all income strata above that.
The research photographs this stage of the electoral race and does not necessarily predict the vote they will have on the 30th, when the second round will be held.
government assessment
Also according to Datafolha, 32% of voters who receive the benefit, or live with someone who is a beneficiary, consider the current government to be great or good, compared to 29% last week and 31% in the first survey after the first round.
39% consider Bolsonaro’s management to be bad or terrible – 44% in the last survey and 41% in the previous one. Those who classify it as regular add up to 28%.
The negative assessment was for the first time numerically below the 40% mark in surveys carried out since May in this group. In June, it reached 47%. The positive rating started at 19% in May.
Among those who do not receive the aid, the evaluation percentages fluctuated by one point since the last survey to 40% approval and 39% disapproval.
Rejection
The rejection of Bolsonaro is at 53% among those benefited by the program and 46% among the other voters interviewed. 37% and 45% reject Lula, respectively.
Among those who receive Auxílio Brasil, 24% say they always trust what the president says. Before the first round, it was 18%.
According to the survey, 50% of beneficiaries say they never trust Bolsonaro’s words, compared to 55% in the previous round and 49% a week earlier.
Aid and FGTS
Auxílio Brasil received an adjustment to R$ 600 two months before the election and had its scope expanded on the eve of the second round. Last week, Caixa started contracting the payroll loan for these beneficiaries. This month, the payment schedule was brought forward to the period from October 11 to 25, before the second round.
The readjustment of the benefit amount was one of Jair Bolsonaro’s main bets in this election. From September 19 to 30, income was paid to 20.65 million families, 450 thousand more than in August, when 20.2 million were entitled. According to the Ministry of Citizenship, Auxílio Brasil is paid to 21.1 million families in October, after the inclusion of 480,000 new beneficiaries.
In the first round, however, the expansion of the program failed to reverse the trend of PT votes among the poorest.
The president launched an additional offensive to try to co-opt voters who earn up to two minimum wages by offering an advance on FGTS resources (Fundo de Garantia do Tempo de Serviço) not yet received by workers for use in their own homes.
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