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Analysts improve expectations for inflation and economy in 2022 and 2023 in Focus


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Analysts consulted by the Central Bank returned to improve expectations for inflation and the economy this year and next, but the account for the rise in prices in 2024 has risen again, according to the Focus survey released by the BC this Monday ( 24).

The expectation now for the rise in the IPCA is 5.60% and 4.94% respectively in 2022 and 2023, from 5.62% and 4.97% predicted in the previous survey. Both projections are above the official target ceiling.

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The center of the official inflation target for 2022 is 3.5% and for 2023 it is 3.25%, always with a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points more or less.

On the other hand, the estimate for inflation in 2024 rose by 0.07 percentage point, reaching 3.50%, but within the target range –3.0%, also with a margin of 1.5 points.

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The survey, which captures the market’s perception of economic indicators, also pointed out that expectations for growth in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) improved to 2.76% this year and 0.63% next year, from 2.71% and 0.59% respectively in the previous week. For 2024, the projection is now for expansion of 1.80%, against 1.70% before.

The weekly survey of a hundred economists also showed that there were no changes in the scenario for the interest rate, with the Selic calculated at 13.75% at the end of this year and 11.25% in 2023.

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