Datafolha: Optimism about the economy is the highest since 2015

The percentages of voters who think that the country’s economic situation has improved in recent months and who expect improvement in the future reached the highest levels in the historical series of the Datafolha survey.

The country’s economic situation has become more favorable in recent months for 34% of voters, according to this week’s survey. This is the highest level since the question was asked in June 2015, when the country was facing one of the biggest recessions in history.

The previous record was the 28% recorded in September this year and also in December 2019, before the pandemic.

Despite the growth in the percentage of positive evaluations, the negative perception of the economy is even greater. 42% saw the country’s situation worsen, the lowest level since the 37% recorded before the pandemic, in December 2019. For 23%, it was the same.

The improvement in the evaluation of the economy has been observed since the beginning of this second semester, a period in which the government amended the electoral law to announce a series of measures to reduce taxes, increase benefits and credit incentives to seek reelection.

The perception is more positive among salaried employees (39%), men (42%) and people with a higher level of education (43%) and income (61%).

The negative evaluation is higher among women (49%), people aged 60 years or older (49%), less educated (53%), residents of the Northeast (54%) and unemployed (52%).

Among those benefiting from Auxílio Brasil, 47% say that the situation in the country has worsened (a figure above average), 28% say that it has improved, and 24%, that it has remained the same. This audience represents about a quarter of respondents.

In relation to their personal situation, 34% also see improvement in recent months, another record, surpassing the 27% of the previous survey. In this case, there is a tie in the margin of error with the negative and stability assessment, both at 33%. Numerically, it is the first time that the positive evaluation surpasses the negative one in the same series.

Among beneficiaries of the aid, 37% say that the personal situation has worsened, 32% say that it has improved, and 31%, that it has remained the same.

record expectation

Datafolha also asked about expectations for the economy, and the answers pointed to a new record in the series, which, in this case, starts in April 2019, under the current government.

62% of respondents estimate that the country’s economic situation will improve in the coming months, compared to 53% in the September survey. These are the only times that optimism has surpassed the 50% mark in the survey. There are 13% who expect it to get worse and 16% who think it will stay as it is.

In the population that receives Auxílio Brasil, optimism is above the national average: 67% say that the Brazilian economy will improve, 10% expect it to get worse, and 15%, stability.

The expectation for the next few months in relation to the interviewee’s own economic situation reached 70%, an unprecedented level, above the 60% of last month. Only 5% expect a worsening, the lowest value in the series.

The institute heard 4,580 people in 252 municipalities between Tuesday (25) and this Thursday (27). The survey was commissioned by Sheet and by TV Globo and is registered under the code BR-04208/2022 with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court). The margin of error is two percentage points.