The Copom determined a new increase of 1.5 percentage points, and the Selic rose to 9.25% per year. Thus, the trigger for the profitability of savings was activated and the investor will once again be remunerated at a fixed rate of 0.5% per month, plus the TR variation, which has been zeroed since 2018.
Remembering the rule: the trigger is 8.5% Selic; if equal to or greater than 8.5%, the return will be 0.5% per month plus TR; if less than 8.5%, it will be 70% of the Selic.
This is a bad scenario for savings investors, as the fixed rate return equivalent to 6.17% per year is not very competitive compared to the basic interest rate, which is on an ascending trajectory due to inflation, which is also growing.
What complicates the competitiveness of savings even more is that the Selic rate should remain at a double-digit level, above 10% a year, for a long time. The longer this scenario lasts, the less competitive the profitability of savings will be in relation to other fixed income products, which are as conservative as savings.
A CDB-DI (Bank Deposit Certificate), for example, can pay 100% (or more) of the CDI, with daily liquidity and guaranteed by the FGC (Credit Guarantee Fund), a mechanism that also guarantees savings deposits. Even after Income Tax, the net income of CDB will be higher than that of savings.
A numerical example to check, assuming the CDI is equal to the Selic and stable at 9.25% per year. In 12 months, after income tax of 17.5%, the CDB will pay a net return of 7.63%, against 6.17% of savings.
If the likely scenario of a new Selic increase occurs at the next meeting, the Selic (and the CDI) will rise to 10.75% per year, significantly increasing the difference in relation to savings, which will remain fixed at 6.17% per year.
In addition to investments in bank deposits, investors can consider investing in federal government bonds, which, despite not being protected by the FGC, are considered free from credit risk.
On the Tesouro Direto portal, investors find some alternatives. The Selic Treasury remunerates 100% of the Selic rate, being the most suitable option for conservative investors with low tolerance to the risk of price fluctuations.
Those who like to know exactly how much they are going to earn, willing to wait for the bond’s maturity to guarantee the contracted remuneration, may be interested in the Prefixed Treasury 2024, for example, which offered profitability around 11% a year last week.
Those with a longer horizon and the objective of protecting their capital against inflation may be interested in the IPCA+ 2026 Treasury, a bond that corrects the amount invested by the IPCA variation and adds a real interest rate, in the range of 4.90% a year, to investors who can wait for the bond’s maturity date.
And it’s not just about earning more than savings, but about defending capital against inflation, which remains very high. Those who remain in savings accounts no longer earn more and lose purchasing power to the 10.74% inflation accumulated in 12 months (until November).
The expectations registered in the Focus report of the Central Bank suggest that the Selic will remain high, with double digits, throughout the year of 2022. It means that the loss of investors who remain in savings will not be temporary.
This context deserves reflection and, perhaps, the decision to invest at least part of the capital in more profitable and non-speculative assets, respecting the conservative profile of investors who seek a place perceived as safe in savings. Not against inflation…
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