The chairman of the board of Grupo Santander, Ana Botín, declares herself optimistic about the future of Brazil. The banker is calm with the transition of government from Jair Bolsonaro (PL) to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), elected this Sunday (30), and believes that the country is more prepared than most to face the global economic scenario. adverse in 2023.
“We work with every government in every country we’re in. We have experiences with previous governments [no Brasil]with that of Lula himself previously and also with the government that will end”, said Botín this Tuesday (2) during a meeting with journalists in Madrid, Spain – the first in person since the beginning of the pandemic.
“We are happy to continue collaborating and working with Brazil and its financial inclusion.”
Botín stressed that he has “a lot of confidence” in Brazil and in the conduct of its macroeconomy. “Fiscal and monetary policies have been right,” he said. “Few countries are in this situation.”
According to the banker, Latin America as a whole is used to facing turmoil, and has instruments to resist a combination of crises that the world is going through and that should cause in 2023 one of the worst recessions in decades. The risk agency Standard & Poor’s, for example, highlighted the banker, brings stable prospects for the region, including Brazil.
“We are experiencing a combination of crises, which started with the health crisis and led to an economic crisis affecting companies, families and governments. Now, we have an energy crisis [resultado da Guerra da Ucrânia]which affects all sectors”, he said, noting that Brazil and Mexico are two countries especially well positioned in Latin America to overcome the adverse moment.
“According to the IMF [Fundo Monetário Internacional]growth in Brazil and Mexico is above expectations for the United States, and inflation expected for the end of next year in both countries is lower than in Germany,” he said.
The banker believes that Brazil will be able to face even its most adverse moment, which is yet to come. The same IMF projects growth of only 1% for Brazil next year, below the average for emerging countries, which is estimated at 3.7%, and the global average, which, according to the institution, has the strength to go to 2, 7%.
The banker highlighted that the moment of economic instability is aggravated by inflation, the greatest evil that needs to be fought with energetic measures.
“Our number one, number two and number three enemy is inflation, which causes the vulnerable to suffer the most,” she said.
On this front, Botín also pointed to the performance of Latin America as an example, where central banks gave an early response to the rise in the cost of living. Once again, she highlighted Brazil, which was ahead of schedule and is already reaping results. “Brazil had three months of deflation,” she said.
The necessary fight against inflation will lead to a significant reduction in liquidity (supply of resources) and a historic economic downturn, and the global challenge will be to maintain minimum growth levels during this turmoil.
“Without growth, there is no possible social policy, there is no inclusion or investments by the private sector, we cannot talk about education, sanitation or all basic services.”
In Botín’s assessment, at least two indicators indicate that the crossing may be less difficult than seen in other moments of crisis. First, the fact that the job market has resisted the blows and unemployment has subsided. Second, the issue of the crisis, unlike others in the past, is not financial, allowing the banks to be a supporting component.
“There is macroeconomic scope to face what is to come, banking systems are much more capitalized and much more regulated and supervised,” she said. “We still want to be part of the solution.”
In Brazil, the institution is already feeling the effects of the ongoing crisis. On Wednesday (26), it reported that it had a net profit of R$ 3.1 billion in the third quarter of 2022, a retraction of 28% compared to the same period last year and 23.5% compared to the previous quarter.
Mario Leão, CEO of Santander Brasil, stated that the result was within the institution’s expectations, which had already identified a macroeconomic deterioration in the country and a worsening in risk. “The current moment is more challenging and it is reflected in the results, but it is part of a known, anticipated, calculated cycle, which, therefore, does not surprise us”, said Leão at the time.
Operating in Brazil since 1982, Santander has almost 58 million customers in the country. With 51 thousand employees, it is the third largest private bank, behind Itaú Unibanco and Bradesco.
The journalist traveled at the invitation of Santander
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