Analysis: ‘Market’ doesn’t veto Haddad and bigger problem is Lula’s economic plan

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“The market” does not “veto” Fernando Haddad’s idea in the Ministry of Finance, even if “market” means big figures in finance. If nothing else, there are no unanimous or immutable positions between these figures or, excuse the obviousness of the ridiculous caricature, a committee of the financial bourgeoisie.

Furthermore, the idea that such and such a name will or should not go to the Treasury is a lobby in the void: no one seems to have any idea what Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva intends to do about it.

To top it off, the name of the nominee may not say much if you don’t know what kind of team will take to the government and what the economic program will be. For now, not even the economy transition team has started work.

As columnist Monica Bergamo wrote in this Sheet, yes, there are rejections of Haddad’s nomination for the Treasury. The former mayor of São Paulo is seen by some as “tough”, “he doesn’t have a political waist”, “difficult”, “opinionated”, “little open to suggestions” and even “vain”, “arrogant” and ” grumpy”, going further into the gossip. Another politician, a governor, a good negotiator in Congress, such as the profile supposedly desired by Lula, would be more convenient.

That said, Haddad’s name is well accepted by some “bankers” (top executives of banks), by managers of big money (fund managers) and by directors of large companies, “entrepreneurs”, who usually attend these dinners with rich with politicians and debate the issue more intensely in message groups. Furthermore, some of these people have even tried to send signals to the PT and to Lula that Haddad would be a good name, although this may not have much practical relevance after all.

Some of these people say that Haddad may be “difficult”, but he has qualities. Haddad would have a more precise notion of the size of the economic difficulty that Lula will face. It was someone who helped bring Geraldo Alckmin to Lula. He knows part of the community of so-called “orthodox”, “liberal” economists, those nicknames, in particular that of São Paulo. He talks to these people. He would have credibility, given certain programmatic conditions, to bring such cadres to the government. Very importantly, he would be a PT politician more capable of telling Lula certain truths. Others, as far as the economy is concerned, would be more submissive.

The fact is that, yes, there are those who defend Haddad on the farm and have been making the campaign possible (small, since Lula is closed) to raise his name. That is, if Lula actually decided to put a “politician” on the Treasury. People really prefer a so-called liberal economist or something similar, needless to say. If the option were Henrique Meirelles or another of the kind, the unanimous preference would be Meirelles.

One caveat of this group is also that Haddad doesn’t seem skilled enough to deal with Congress. Some even say that he is “too much from São Paulo”. More seriously, they say he simply doesn’t have that experience with parliamentarians. In this case, people from the PT and outside who have a hunch believe that a name like Alexandre Padilha could be the government’s negotiator.

Padilha was Minister of Lula’s Secretary of Institutional Relations (2009-2010), dealing with political articulation, Minister of Health of Dilma Rousseff (2011-2014) and Secretary of Health in Haddad City Hall, in São Paulo (2015-2016). People from the PT want some important position for Padilha, whatever it is.

He is a name on the speculation list, as he spoke well to wealthy people during the campaign, often as Lula’s emissary. It’s a name that would also go down well for the Farm, although these money people say they have no idea what he thinks. But these people also don’t know what the left-wing governors considered to be in charge of the economy think, although they were encouraged by the tactful and diplomatic character of some of them when they visited São Paulo’s money.

Finally, Lula’s recent speeches have caused a bad impression among the owners of the money, government creditors in general (those who sell or buy reais and who finance the huge public debt) and those who decide whether to expand businesses. If this is the line he is going to implement, any nominee for Minister of Finance will have problems (or won’t even want to take the role).

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