Opinion: How to read the signals coming from the elected government

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Two weeks after the second round of the elections, the demonstrations of nonconformity subsided, lulled by the deafening silence of the Planalto. Meanwhile, the country turns its attention to the signs emanating from the victorious field, trying to read in the tea leaves of the nominations for the transition team, in the attitudes and pronouncements of the president-elect and his closest circle, the direction that will be given running the country over the next four years.

The task is not easy. The broad arc of alliances that formed to elect Lula includes quite different lines of thought, as well as combining old and recent support. They are there from his historical companions, who accompanied him on the painful paths of Lava Jato and prison, to those who allied with him in the electoral period —especially in the second round—moved more by an aversion to the risks to democracy perceived in the continuity of the current president than for an effective affinity with the PT ideology.

Although he has broad freedom to choose his team, Lula’s position presents significant difficulties. There’s no way to please his wide range of followers. Furthermore, it’s not just the followers that count; Lula will be the president of all Brazilians and nobody is interested in the country being divided during the four years of his term.

As an experienced politician, Lula knows that the leader’s role often consists of knowing how to frustrate the immediate — and immediate — expectations of those he leads, in the name of a greater, more tangible and sustainable objective. This is especially true when these expectations are supported by rancor and revenge; resentment has never been a good counselor.

Perhaps no leader has shown a greater ability to disappoint an important part of his followers than Nelson Mandela. He, who after 27 years in prison would have every justification to persecute his oppressors, knew how to lead his country to a multiracial democracy, through effective and symbolic attitudes, which contemplated and combined interests of all parties involved. History has done him justice, recognizing the wisdom of his conduct.

While anxiety grows to know the composition of the ministry, which may take a few weeks yet, we will very soon have a very clear indicator of the nature of the leadership that we will have in the country. I refer to the election for the presidency of the Inter-American Development Bank that will take place on Sunday, November 20th.

The IDB is the most important multilateral financial institution in the Americas. It supports development projects across the continent and the quality of its evaluation gives the projects financed great credibility, which is decisive for attracting other public and private funders. Its president is elected for a term of five years, by an assembly where the 48 member countries are represented. The election requires a weighted majority vote of member countries, as well as support from at least 15 of the 28 regional countries, which are a subset of member countries.

In all its 63 years of existence, the IDB has never been chaired by a Brazilian. This can change now. News collected in Washington by several publications, inform that Ilan Goldfajn, the Brazilian candidate, nominated by the Bolsonaro administration through Minister Paulo Guedes, is appointed as the favorite to win the elections. This favoritism, however, will only be confirmed if the candidate receives the explicit support of the Lula government.

This support so far not only has not materialized, but former minister Mantega sent a letter to the US Treasury secretary, proposing that the elections be postponed, so that the new government could nominate a candidate. The request, which was untimely and inappropriate, was denied as expected, and the elections will take place on the scheduled date.

Ilan is a professional particularly suited to the role. He combines extensive academic and executive experience in both the public and private sectors. He holds a doctorate from MIT, was director and president of the Central Bank of Brazil, chief economist at Itaú and currently occupies the important directorship of the IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department. He excelled in all these functions, as well as, according to newspaper reports, he excelled in the Sabbath held by the 48 member countries last Sunday.

Lula, in turn, is absolutely silent about the election. He neither approved nor disallowed the letter proposing a postponement of the elections.

The election of Ilan will make a difference for the IDB and for Brazil, which seeks to regain its international prestige, after four years of absolute neglect in relation to our role on the global stage.

When the result of the election is announced this Sunday, we will know if Lula behaved like the leader of a country, or of a party. This will be an important sign regarding what we should expect in the next four years.

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