Bolsonaro must maintain blocking of amendments and raises pressure for jabuti in Lula’s PEC

The government of Jair Bolsonaro (PL) should not be able to unlock the 2022 parliamentary amendments that are currently frozen due to lack of space in the Budget.

Members of the current government, such as Minister Ciro Nogueira (Casa Civil), have made efforts in recent weeks to find a way to alleviate forecasts for other federal spending and, with that, release the amendments.

However, the scenario is that Bolsonaro even has to announce yet another expenditure block on the eve of the end of the year because of the decision of the STF (Federal Supreme Court) that prevented the government’s attempt to postpone transfers to the cultural sector regarding the laws Paulo Gustavo and Aldir Blanc 2. The impact is R$ 3.8 billion this year.

Allies of the mayor, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), have already been warned about the possible maintenance of the amendment blockade. This should intensify the articulation, revealed by the Sheetto insert a tortoise in the PEC (proposed amendment to the Constitution) of the Transition.

The goal of centrão leaders is to take advantage of the PEC sponsored by the president-elect, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), in order to also make room in the 2022 Budget for amendments.

Amendments are the way for deputies and senators to send money to destinations of interest in their regions of influence.

Currently, almost R$ 7.7 billion of the rapporteur’s amendments, used in the political negotiation between the Planalto Palace and Congress, are blocked. The amount represents 46.7% of the total BRL 16.5 billion reserved for this instrument.

The lack of money in the Budget has already had effects on the functioning of the public machine. The Federal Police, for example, suspended the production of new passports as of this Saturday (19). This pressure on spending by ministries was increased after the STF decision.

Therefore, members of the government say that the amendments should not be released in the review of the 2022 expenses, scheduled for Tuesday (22).

Lira has an important bargaining chip in these amendments to garner support from parliamentarians for her re-election as head of the House, in February of next year.

According to people involved in the negotiation, around BRL 3.7 billion of the blocked amount have already been negotiated and, therefore, the ministries have started to follow the bureaucratic procedure so that the amendments are executed later this year – as soon as the resources are released.

About R$ 4 billion, which are almost entirely in Lira’s hands, will still be indicated after negotiations with congressional leaders.

Despite the short deadline for the projects and works to be financed with the amendments, the idea is that the bureaucratic procedure be completed by December 31st. This means that the resources will be committed — a phase in which the reservation of the amount to be spent in the Budget is confirmed.

With the committed resources, the projects and works in the municipalities can be carried out —and paid for— in another year.

The articulation with the aim of using Lula’s PEC to ease Bolsonaro’s last Budget was confirmed about ten days ago by leaders of the centrão and by members of the current government, who also participate in the conversations to release the 2022 amendments.

The Transition PEC has been sponsored by the president-elect and has another purpose, that of guaranteeing the continuity of the minimum benefit of R$600 from Auxílio Brasil (which should be renamed Bolsa Família) starting next year —in addition to opening space for other expenses. In total, the forecast is that the proposal will allow the execution of R$ 198 billion outside the spending ceiling.

Lula’s allies hope that, with the PT’s return to Brazil, the negotiations around the PEC will advance this week, when contact with Lira and with the president of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG) should be intensified. The Senate also has resources on blocked parliamentary amendments.

On another articulation front, the transition team also decided to create a group with leaders of the House and Senate of allied parties to discuss the approval of the PEC. The group should meet on Wednesday (23).

The measure was drawn up by Lula’s allies and by the vice president-elect, Geraldo Alckmin (PSB). Parliamentarians claim that the intention is to set up a kind of “mixed commission” to negotiate the text with deputies and senators simultaneously.

There is concern about the tight deadline for approving the PEC. In the most optimistic scenario, with little obstruction from the Bolsonarist opposition, the text would be enacted in three weeks. The group with leaders from the Senate and the House would help to reconcile positions and iron out any differences.

The elected government awaits negotiations to adjust the final text of the PEC, which should begin to be processed by the Senate. A PEC needs the support of 49 senators and 308 deputies to be approved, in two shifts in each House.