Dollar has strong fall with good external mood

The dollar fell sharply against the real this Thursday morning (24), following the external good mood after signaling that the United States central bank may reduce its monetary tightening pace, while, in Brazil, the rejection of the action that calls for an extraordinary verification of the second round of elections sustained the sentiment.

At 9:12 am (Brasília time), the spot dollar fell 1.09%, to R$ 5.3125 on sale, in a session that should have low liquidity due to a holiday in the United States and Brazil’s debut in the World Cup , at 4 pm.

At B3, at 9:12 am, the first contract dollar futures contract fell 0.98%, to R$ 5.3190.

American stock exchanges will remain closed this Thursday due to the Thanksgiving holiday, reducing the number of market operations and this tends to make financial indices more volatile, while in China the growth of Covid cases causes new restrictions, creating threats to the raw materials sector of the Brazilian Stock Exchange.

Also this morning, the European Central Bank released the minutes of its last monetary policy meeting.

On Wednesday (23), the expectation of a slowdown in the increase in interest rates in the United States partially eased the pessimism of the domestic financial market, which remains pressured by concerns about the transition of government in Brazil.

On the local exchange rate, the dollar began to fall slightly only at the end of the afternoon, when the release of the minutes of the last meeting of the Fed (Federal Reserve, the US central bank) indicated that the members of the country’s monetary authority assess that the rate of Interest rates may rise more slowly in the coming months.

“A substantial majority of respondents judged that a slowdown in the pace of growth [da taxa de juros] would be appropriate shortly,” the minutes said.

The spot commercial dollar closed down 0.18%, quoted at R$5.3690. At the beginning of the day, it rose to R$ 5.4120. Unlike the resistance offered to the real, the American currency had a day of weakness against virtually all major international currencies and lost even more ground after the Fed minutes.

Still reflecting the pressure generated the day before by the contestation of ballot boxes used in the election by President Jair Bolsonaro’s party and the maintenance of uncertainty in the negotiations on the Transition PEC, the Brazilian Stock Exchange closed against global markets.

The Ibovespa ended the session down 0.18%, at 108,841 points, improving slightly at the end of the day compared to the low of 107,901 recorded earlier. While the reference index of the Brazilian Stock Exchange gave way, the parameter indicator of American shares S&P 500 closed with a rise of 0.59%.

The DI interest rate (interbank deposits) for 2024, a reference for short-term credit, reached around 14.58% per annum at the end of this Wednesday, against 14.38% the day before. This indicator was at 13.05% at the close of the last 9th, the eve of the speech in which President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) raised the tone of his criticisms of the spending cap rule.

The price of Brent oil, a reference for Petrobras prices, fell more than 4% during the day in reaction to restrictions in China due to Covid and with the discussion in the European Union about the imposition of a ceiling on the price of oil from Russia, between $65 and $70, Bloomberg reported.

Despite the drop in the value of the raw material, Petrobras’ preferred shares sustained an increase of 0.30% on the Brazilian Stock Exchange, which was evaluated as a technical adjustment movement after the recent lows.

Symptom that the concern that the increase in public spending will lead Brazil to a scenario of inflation and high interest rates, retail shares closed sharply on the Stock Exchange this Wednesday. CVC and Cielo fell more than 7%. The Natura and Soma groups yielded almost 5%.

With Reuters