New fiscal rule must be based on debt, argues Alckmin

The vice president-elect, Geraldo Alckmin (PSB), said this Saturday (26) that the new fiscal rule, which will be proposed by the future government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) needs to be anchored in debt containment and not just in a spending ceiling, as it is today.

Alckmin participated in the Esfera Forum, an event held on Friday (25) and this Saturday (26) in Guarujá, on the coast of São Paulo.

“What we must do, not now, but next, is to discuss, up front, a fiscal anchor that is not just a ceiling [de gastos]”, said Alckmin. “Once you establish that [o gasto] it cannot grow more than inflation, under no circumstances, even if revenue grows more, you crush investment. This is the reality.”

To reinforce the argument, the vice president-elect recalled that the government of Jair Bolsonaro (PL) has not met the ceiling since 2020.

“It is important that we have a fiscal anchorage that is based on the debt issue, on the debt curve to, over time, reduce the debt over GDP —incidentally, something that President Lula has already done. He took the debt at 60% of GDP, and when he transferred the government it was 40%,” he said.

Alckmin also highlighted that other indicators associated with this new anchoring are under discussion, and he argues that the new rule, unlike the current one, should not be included in the Constitution.

“What is the primary surplus that we will need to have, and the expenses that we can have [junto com a dívida] these are three issues that we will need to discuss further ahead”, he said. “I defend that she [a nova regra] must be deconstitutionalized.”

The economy transition group, responsible for diagnosing the area, has already begun to discuss parameters for the new rule. However, the elected government intends to address the issue only after taking office. At the moment, the focus is on renegotiating the revision of the Budget, obtaining resources through a PEC (Proposed Amendment to the Constitution).

The debate involving amounts and deadlines for spending has stalled in Congress. Lula is expected to go to Brasília on Monday (28) to participate in the negotiations.

Alckmin also highlighted that the dismemberment of the Ministry of Economy is still being evaluated by Lula, but he stated that the next government wants to recover the planning instruments.

“We need to recover planning. It is essential. And to have good projects. There is a lot of liquidity in the world. If you have good projects and legal security, you will attract a lot of investment in infrastructure. And Brazil needs to grow. It needs jobs.”

At the Esfera Forum, the vice president was one of the panelists who discussed the country’s economic challenges at the end of the meeting.

Also participating in the panel were the president of the Central Bank, Roberto Campos Neto, and minister Bruno Dantas, acting president of the TCU (Union Court of Auditors), as well as businessman Abilio Diniz, president of the board of directors of Península, a family investments, and banker André Esteves, co-founder of BTG Pactual.

Event generates rapprochement between elected government and businessmen

The Esfera Forum was organized with the aim of promoting debates and connecting representatives of the public and private sectors, says businessman João Camargo, founder of Grupo Esfera Brasil, responsible for organizing the event.

“We try to politicize the entrepreneur — it’s not about making him a politician”, states Camargo. “Since it generates jobs, pays high taxes, takes risks and generates wealth, it is only fair that it establishes a dialogue with the public sector.”

In this edition, the proposal was to promote discussions of the business sector with representatives of the elected government after a polarized campaign, and also with the Judiciary, responsible for regulatory stability.

The list of participants is long and diverse. It includes former deputy Floriano Pesaro, executive coordinator of the transition team, economist Gabriel Galípolo, former president of Banco Fator, quoted to take over the BNDES. The director of cardiology at Hospital Sírio-Libanês and the board at Incor, Roberto Kalil Filho, who is in the health group. State deputy Emídio de Souza (PT-SP), who accompanies the human rights group.

There were presentations by ministers Luís Roberto Barroso and Ricardo Lewandowski, both from the STF (Federal Supreme Court), as well as minister Luis Felipe Salomão, from the STJ (Superior Court of Justice).

Also participating in the debates were Professor of Criminal Law at USP (University of São Paulo), Pierpaolo Bottini, and lawyer Cristiano Zanin, both from the transition group responsible for Justice and public security.

The audience included representatives of companies from various sectors. The controller of the Riachuelo network, Flavio Rocha, who supported the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff (PT) and the government of Jair Bolsonaro (PL), as well as José Seripieri Júnior, founder of the Qualicorp, which recently generated controversy by giving Lula a ride on his plane, heading to COP27 (27th United Nations Climate Conference), in Egypt.

Also following the debates were representatives of the institutional relations of large companies, such as XP and Ambev, as well as sector entities, such as Abegás, from the gas sector, Unica, from the sugar and ethanol sector, and Ibram, from the mining area.

Many politicians were at the forum. Lectures were given by elected governors, including Helder Barbalho (PA), Renato Casagrande (ES) and Tarcísio de Freitas (SP), as well as numerous political leaders, such as the national president of the PSD, Gilberto Kassab, who was confirmed at the event as future government secretary of Tarcísio’s administration.

“I believe that, as a result of this meeting, we will have a calmer market in the next few days”, states Camargo.