Petrobras forecasts up to R$442 billion in dividends between 2023 and 2027

Criticized by members of the Lula government’s transition, the distribution of high dividends remains in Petrobras’ management plans, according to the strategic plan released this Wednesday (30). Between 2023 and 2027, the company expects to pay up to US$ 85 billion (R$ 442 billion, according to Wednesday’s quotation). In 2022, Petrobras became the largest dividend payer in the world.

The plan, however, will be reviewed by the Lula government, which wants a more integrated Petrobras, with the resumption of investments in refineries and preparing for the energy transition, and was released this Wednesday (30) only to comply with legal formalities.

In its projections for the next five years, Petrobras expects revenues between US$ 180 billion and US$ 210 billion (R$ 936 billion and R$ 1.1 billion) in the next five years. Of this total, between US$ 10 billion (R$ 52 billion) and US$ 20 billion (R$ 104 billion) would come from asset sales, another point criticized by Lula’s program.

Investments would total US$ 78 billion (R$ 405 billion). The expected dividends are divided into two items: the portion equivalent to 60% of the company’s free cash flow, of up to US$ 70 billion (R$ 364 billion) and possible extraordinary dividends of US$ 15 billion (R$ 78 billion) .

In a conference call to detail the numbers with investors this Thursday (1st), Petrobras’ financial director, Rodrigo Araújo, defended the maintenance of the strategy in relation to previous plans, focusing on more profitable projects and value creation.

And he repeated the argument that has been used by the company to rebut criticism of the high dividends. “More than half of what the company generates returns to Brazilian society,” he said.

In the document it delivered to the Stock Exchange, the state-owned company says that its business plan “demonstrates Petrobras’ commitment to being a company focused on generating value, with the capacity to invest, create jobs, pay taxes and distribute its earnings to the society and its shareholders”.

“The company follows the trajectory of being an increasingly healthy, solid and resilient company, contributing to the generation of reliable and efficient energy and to an environmentally sustainable world.”

The volume of investments planned for the next five years is 15% higher than the previous plan, announced at the end of 2021. In addition to this amount, the company expects to spend another US$ 20 billion (R$ 140 billion) on platform rentals.

Of the total planned investments, 83% would be earmarked for exploration and production. The areas of refining and gas and energy, with 12%. Another 2% would be spent on marketing and logistics and 3% on corporate expenses.

The refining area, one of the priorities pointed out by Lula’s government program, has US$ 7.8 billion (R$ 40 billion) forecast. Almost half is destined to the expansion and modernization of existing units, including the Abreu e Lima Refinery, in Pernambuco, whose expansion had been paralyzed.

There are also projects for the production of more sustainable fuels, such as diesel made from a mixture of petroleum and vegetable oils and bioQAV (aviation kerosene), which will be produced in Cubatão.

On Wednesday, before launching the plan, the coordinator of the transition team, Maurício Tolmasquim, said that the decision to revise the business plan will be taken by Petrobras’ new command, who has not yet been appointed by President Lula.