Areas of the new government compete for open space in the Budget for the Transition PEC

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In search of recomposition of resources for 2023, the key areas of the elected government Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) dispute the space that will be opened in the Budget once the PEC (proposed amendment to the Constitution) of the Transition is approved.

Of the BRL 105 billion currently reserved for Brazil Aid and which may be redistributed in 2023, at least BRL 75 billion are claimed to avoid a blackout in the sectors most affected by cuts this year, such as Health and Education. Another R$ 10 billion are already in the plans of the new government.

The transition work groups mapped the scenario based on estimates made by members of the current Jair Bolsonaro (PL) government in order to meet the minimum needs of each area.

The text of the Transition PEC filed in the Senate on Monday (28) provides for the exclusion of the Auxílio Brasil –which will be renamed Bolsa Família– from the spending ceiling, a fiscal rule that limits the growth of expenses. The PT estimates BRL 175 billion to maintain the benefit of BRL 600 and pay an additional BRL 150 per child up to six years old.

The proposal also foresees a device that allows investments in case of extraordinary revenues, up to the limit of R$ 23 billion. In practice, the extract would rise to R$ 198 billion, although the value is not explicit in the proposal.

Coordinator of the technical groups for the transition of government, Aloizio Mercadante (PT) says he sees a “total budgetary collapse” and a dismantling of public policies.

According to the general rapporteur for the 2023 Budget, senator Marcelo Castro (MDB-PI), the priority for replenishing resources is for the social area.

“We would have budget space of R$ 105 billion to be filled with Popular Pharmacy, indigenous health, school meals, investment, which are [temas] very expensive for the new government”, he said.

The transition team has stated that the scenario is one of health chaos. If the PEC is approved in Congress, the area wants an increase of R$ 22.7 billion. The value would serve to invest in medicines, vaccines and ensure the functioning of the SUS (Unified Health System).

The Bolsonaro government sent the Budget proposal for 2023 with a forecast cut of 42% in the discretionary funds of the Ministry of Health, used in the purchase of materials, equipment and for investments.

The reserve for the Popular Pharmacy program – which distributes basic medicines free of charge or with a discount of up to 90% through partnered private pharmacies – fell 59%, from R$ 2.48 billion this year to R$ 1 billion in 2023.

In a meeting last week, Lula signaled that there will be no shortage of funds for the area. “Our job will be to find these resources and invest in SUS, especially in rescuing the National Immunization Program to regain the population’s confidence in vaccines”, she said.

In the area of ​​Education, the work team defined a recomposition of R$ 12 billion in the MEC budget. Of the total, there are plans to allocate R$ 1.5 billion to the PNAE (National School Feeding Program). Federal money for meals currently ranges from R$0.32 to R$1.07 per day per student.

“There are urgent needs in all educational stages and actions, such as early childhood education, meals, learning recovery plans, universities and institutes”, said Deputy Reginaldo Lopes (PT-MG).

With regard to universities and institutes, the idea is that investment resources are recomposed to the reality of 2014. In the budget proposal for 2023 sent by the Bolsonaro government to Congress, the budget for higher education for this purpose amounts to R$ 232 million. Eight years ago, the value was R$ 1.6 billion (adjusted for inflation).

The working group talks about “budget setbacks” about the situation at the MEC. “With the current budget, it will not be possible to implement the proposals of the government plan and several ongoing actions are at serious risk of being discontinued”, says the preliminary report.

In the area of ​​Social Development, it is estimated that R$ 2 billion will be needed to maintain the Gas Aid. The team also targets BRL 500 million for the PAA (Food Acquisition Program) and BRL 2.6 billion for Suas (Unified Social Assistance System)

The Justice and Public Security group intends to ask for at least BRL 400 to BRL 500 million above the budget for 2023 to avoid interruption of services. The amount would be mainly to complement the budget of the Federal Police, Federal Highway Police and Fupen (National Penitentiary Fund).

The group claims that there is a lack of resources to pay per diems for PF and PRF agents. They also ask for an increase of R$ 200 million in this year’s Budget. The lack of funds ranges from issuing passports to security and border control operations.

To resume the halted works in the Housing area, the value initially calculated by the Cities work group is R$ 2.6 billion, of which approximately R$ 1 billion will be used to continue the works on track 1 of Minha Casa, Minha Vida –housing program aimed at the low-income population.

The amount of the FAR (Fundo de Arrendamento Residencial) fell from the current BRL 665 million to BRL 34 million in the 2023 Budget project.

“We are concerned about the amount of work stopped and the lack of budgetary resources at PLOA [projeto de Lei Orçamentária] 2023”, said elected deputy Guilherme Boulos (PSOL-SP).

In a document delivered to Lula, a committee made up of employees and former directors of the Caixa Econômica Federal highlighted that the dispute for resources in the budgetary space that opens up with the PEC has many destinations, “indicating the need for the transition group to be attentive to the allocation of resources in LOA-2023 for contracting the 500,000 units indicated in the government plan for 2023.”

The amount needed to start new projects has not yet been calculated. “When we say that we want to resume Minha Casa, Minha Vida approving new projects, we will have to sit down to evaluate”, said former deputy Geraldo Magela, a member of the working group.

In the Regional Development area, the team diagnosed that there is a deficit of R$ 2 billion for next year. In the LOA delivered to Congress, the folder would have R$ 3 billion.

“In all, the MDR needs more than R$ 5 billion to carry out the actions it needs for 2023”, said senator Randolfe Rodrigues (Rede-AP). The calculation is based on the signaling made by the current minister of the portfolio, Daniel Ferreira, and will still be discussed.

The Environment working group also says it has not yet calculated the amount it will have to fight for to implement the intended changes in the sector.

Despite the lack of definition, there is an articulation for potential parliamentarians from the future group of the Lula government in Congress to present amendments to the Budget proposal sent by Bolsonaro.

In a survey carried out by Sheet, the value reaches almost R$ 1.6 billion. The amount is seen by members of the transition as plausible so far.

“It is important that the debate on the PEC of the Transition and Budget of 2023 consider the essential financial conditions to stop the process of environmental degradation underway in the country”, said deputy Nilto Tatto (PT-SP), scheduled to articulate the related demands to environmental funds.

In 2021, the Bolsonaro government proposed the smallest budget of the century for the portfolio (R$ 1.7 billion).

According to the diagnosis of the transition team, four main fronts need to be restructured: environmental inspection, control of fires, reduction of deforestation and recomposition of the agency’s staff.

In the area of ​​Science and Technology, in turn, there is a demand of R$ 4.2 billion for the FNDCT (National Fund for Scientific and Technological Development) and R$ 400 million for other actions.

A portion of the FNDCT’s resources is earmarked for research institutes, another part is credited to companies wishing to carry out research.

The transition also estimates around BRL 21 billion for investments in different segments, which includes part of the budget for Housing.

The demands made by the areas of the new government compete with some expenses considered as priorities, such as the real increase (greater than inflation) of the minimum wage – Lula’s campaign promise. The measure would need BRL 6.8 billion from the 2023 Budget.

Next year, it will also be necessary to allocate R$ 3 billion referring to the Aldir Blanc Law 2. In November, the STF (Federal Supreme Court) suspended the effects of a provisional measure that allowed the postponement of payments to the cultural sector.


RESOURCES ESTIMATED BY THE TRANSITION WORKING GROUPS

  • Health: BRL 22.7 billion
  • Education: R$ 12 billion, of which R$ 1.5 billion for lunch
  • Social development: BRL 2 billion for Gas Aid, BRL 500 million for PAA (Food Acquisition Program) and BRL 2.6 billion for Suas (Unified Social Assistance System)
  • Justice and Public Security: BRL 500 million
  • Cities: BRL 2.6 billion, of which BRL 1 billion for track 1 of Minha Casa, Minha Vida
  • Regional development: BRL 5 billion
  • Environment: BRL 1.6 billion
  • Science and technology: R$ 4.2 billion for FNDCT (National Scientific and Technological Development Fund) and R$ 400 million for other actions.
  • Investments: BRL 21 billion, including part of the housing budget
  • Other expenses: BRL 6.8 billion for a real increase in the minimum wage and BRL 3 billion for the Aldir Blanc 2 Law

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