Opinion – Marcos de Vasconcellos: Few options to earn a lot; good options to always win

Remember how until recently we were peppered with advertisements for cryptocurrency trading and how this was the market that was going to explode? It imploded. And investing abroad was what would make you rich? US stocks melted.

So bitcoin is a scam? Is investing in the US stupid? No, calm down. Both have their role, but in their time, in their space, in the composition of a selection of investments. They are strikers who scored good goals in past matches, but who this year were better on the bench.

In variable income, in 2022 (and it’s already December!), those who bet on rice and beans were awarded. While the Ibovespa, the largest representative of our stock market, has risen by a meager 6.7% so far — with accumulated inflation of 4.7% up to October — another index has appreciated by a good 14.5%: the Idiv.

If you don’t know it, it’s a kind of Ibovespa only with companies that traditionally pay dividends to their shareholders. Instead of the 92 stocks, only 52 make up the index — headed by Vale, BB Seguridade and Gerdau.

And what do good dividend payers have in common? They tend to be stable and consolidated companies that no longer need to make large investments. Banks, energy companies, steel companies, for example.

That is, those who bet on stability had a good return on variable income. And Idiv’s valuation is based only on the prices of the papers, without taking into account the proceeds paid along the way.

The focus on traditional sectors has also brought good results outside Brazil. The index that brings together BDRs —papers issued here, representing shares on foreign stock exchanges— has fallen by almost 25% this year. It is the biggest annual drop since its inception, according to a survey by the TradeMap platform. But 22 of its 130 papers won from our inflation.

At the top of the list: oil, oil and more oil. Occidental Petroleum; Exxon Mobil; Devon and Chevron delivered 50% to 125% gains to their shareholders. In other words: even with the fall of the American stock exchanges, it was possible to earn money with BDRs.

On the Ibovespa, in turn, 34 shares appreciated above inflation, reaching 108%, including Cielo shares (CIEL3).

But there is another type of asset traded on the Stock Exchange that brought more winning options to its investors this year: real estate funds (FIIs).

From January until now, the index that brings together the FIIs (Ifix) has done poorly: it yielded 2.5%. However, those who sift through their assets will find 49 that have gained from inflation so far. But none of them rose more than 30%.

In summary: where it was easier to find good options to invest (FIIs), there is not even one option with more than 50% appreciation. Where it was more difficult to sift through good papers (Brazilian stocks and BDRs), two papers would more than double the money invested.

And there is no right or wrong here. It depends on your financial situation, your appetite for risk and your ability and dedication sifting through the existing options. More risk, more return—as long as you hit the target. Less risk, less return — with more chances to build your equity over the long term. Scale your selection and don’t take your eye off the game.