Indebted, consumers tend to abandon impulse purchases at Christmas

Less impulse buying, more rationality. The 13th salary is not being enough to encourage consumers for traditional year-end purchases. After a dwindling Black Friday, with sales falling for the first time since the date began to be celebrated in the country, Brazilians are showing signs that Christmas shopping should be accompanied by a Spartan spirit, without euphoria.

Research by Abcomm (Brazilian Association of Electronic Commerce Companies), released exclusively for the Sheet, points to a real increase of 3.8% in Christmas 2022 sales over the same date last year, to R$ 17.3 billion. Christmas 2021, in turn, had increased by 18% over sales from the previous year.

This year’s average ticket is BRL 450, according to Abcomm, practically tied with the BRL 445 spent at Christmas 2021.

Abcomm’s forecast is in line with the expectations of the ACSP (Commercial Association of São Paulo), which estimates a real growth of 3% this Christmas compared to last year.

A survey by CDLRio (Rio de Janeiro Store Directors Club) and SindilojasRio (Rio de Janeiro Trade Store Owners Union) shows less optimism: a nominal increase (not discounting inflation) of 5% this Christmas. Accumulated inflation by the IPCA in the last 12 months, however, is 6.47% up to October. The financial market forecast for this year’s inflation is 5.63%.

“The high indebtedness of families, in addition to the unfavorable exchange rate, which impacted the price of many products, especially electronics, forces people to be more assertive in their consumption choices”, says Rodrigo Bandeira, vice-president of Abcomm.

A survey carried out by the CNDL (National Confederation of Shopkeepers) and by the SPC Brasil (Credit Protection Service) points out that four out of 10 adult Brazilians (40.05%) were negative in October 2022 – the equivalent of 64.87 million of people, a new record in the historical series of the survey, carried out eight years ago. In October, the volume of consumers with late bills grew 9.24% compared to the same period of the previous year.

This was what justified, for example, the lower-than-expected performance of Black Friday this year, which was also impacted by the lower number of promotions offered by retailers and because it took place simultaneously with the World Cup. “For digital, the Cup was a dispersion factor”, states Bandeira.

According to figures from Abcomm, there was a 3% increase in Black Friday sales in 2022, reaching BRL 6 billion (accumulated revenue from Thursday to Sunday). Considering only Friday, however, the number of orders fell by 4%.

A survey by research firm NielsenIQ|Ebit, in partnership with Bexs Pay, pointed to a 23% drop in gross revenues from Brazilian e-commerce on Friday (25) compared to 2021. Research by Clearsale and Neotrust, in turn, showed that sales decreased by 28% on Friday alone, to R$ 3.1 billion.

In the opinion of Edu Neves, president of the Brazilian complaints website Reclame Aqui, after this “weak” Black Friday, people’s shopping intentions have not changed. “It’s clear that nobody is spending on impulse,” he says. “The consumer was orphaned of discounts and is giving up buying.”

Poll by Instituto Reclame Aqui on the 29th, with 1,334 users, also released exclusively to the Sheet, points out that 70.5% of consumers did not buy on Black Friday. Of these, 36% said they weren’t going to buy anyway and 64% didn’t buy because they couldn’t find an opportunity due to price.

According to Reclame Aqui, among consumers who did not buy on Black Friday, but who continue to look for promotions until Christmas, the most searched categories will be: Electronics (drone, home automation, virtual assistant, speaker, headphones, etc. ), Clothes and shoes, Smartphones, Household appliances and small appliances (stove, sandwich maker, mixer, blender, etc.), in that order. The vast majority of them (90%) will buy online.

Among those who bought on Black Friday and showed the intention to continue researching good prices, the greatest demand will be for Clothing and footwear, Electronics, TV, Sneakers, Smartphones and Travel. Among these consumers, only 12.4% go to physical retail.

“I believe that Christmas will be concentrated on giving gifts to oneself in higher tickets, which involves white goods and electronics, indicating a much more planned purchase”, says Neves. “And friends and relatives will keep the souvenirs, the cheaper items.”

The executive claims that retailers are aware of this behavior and should bet on more specific promotions packaged by the Cup, which runs until the next 18th, the last weekend before Christmas.

“We could also see e-commerce actions involving lower value products that can be delivered very close to the date, with cheaper shipping.”

According to the most recent data from FGV Ibre (Brazilian Institute of Economics of the Getulio Vargas Foundation), referring to July 2022, online commerce represents 13.9% of total retail sales.

Malls in SP must open until 6 pm on the 24th and until 4 pm on the 31st

According to the CNDL (National Confederation of Shopkeepers), the shopkeeper federations in each state have the autonomy to act in accordance with the collective labor agreements in their respective locations, in order to define the opening hours of the stores on the 24th and 31st. Trade in general does not open on December 25th and January 1st.

Abrasce (Brazilian Association of Shopping Centers) also informed that the opening hours of malls on the eve will be at the discretion of each establishment, always respecting the collective work agreement.

According to Sindilojas-SP, in the capital of São Paulo, there is no time restriction for the 24th and 31st, which fall on Saturday. In the Rio de Janeiro capital, commerce will operate until 6 pm on both eves, according to SindilojasRio.

At Multiplan, one of the largest mall managers in the country, which has projects such as Morumbi Shopping, Shopping Vila Olímpia and Ribeirão Shopping in its portfolio, opening hours in the state of São Paulo will be from 9 am to 6 pm on the 24th, and from 10 am to 4pm on the 31st.

“Considering the performance of the last quarters, retailers will have a good Christmas in 2022”, he told Sheet Vander Giordano, Multiplan’s compliance and institutional vice-president. “We have the Brazil Aid and other benefits being distributed this month, I prefer to see the glass half full”, he says.

According to Abcomm, the categories that tend to show greater demand for Christmas are fashion, beauty and pet shop. “Telephony will stay for 2023, with the more robust entry of 5G”, says Rodrigo Bandeira.

The executive claims electronic retail has been improving its logistics to deliver faster. “The Brazilian knows that he can extend the shopping date until closer to Christmas and be served.”

The Brazilian arm of the American Amazon, one of the largest e-commerce operations in the country, guarantees that it has done its homework. “We expanded the logistical programs in Brazil, enabling delivery in 100% of the country’s municipalities”, says Juliana Sztrajtman, director of retail for Amazon in Brazil.

According to the executive, today the company delivers in up to two days to over a thousand cities in the country and in up to one day to one hundred cities. For this, Amazon has 12 DCs (distribution centers) and 12 delivery stations, nine of which were opened this year.

Rodrigo Bandeira claims that normality in purchases is being resumed at the end of the year, after a turbulent electoral period, which tends to test the confidence of consumers and businessmen.