For 31% of Brazilians, inflation will decrease in the coming months, according to a Datafolha survey carried out on December 19th and 20th. This is the highest percentage recorded in the four years of the current presidential term.
In the previous survey, in June of this year, only 13% made this assessment. During this period, however, the consumer price index fell from a level of almost 12% to less than 6% in the accumulated 12 months.
The share of those who think that inflation will increase was 63% in the previous survey and is now at 39%. This is the lowest percentage in these four years of government.
For 24% inflation will remain as it is. The market’s expectation is for a price index going from 5.8% at the end of this year to 5.2% at the end of the next. That is, a slight drop.
For 43% of Brazilians, the purchasing power of salaries will increase. For 21%, it will decrease. These are also the best results in surveys conducted since April 2019, the first year of the Jair Bolsonaro (PL) government.
In the current mandate, the IPCA (consumer price index) will exceed the limits of the inflation targets twice. In 2021, it stayed at 10%. The ceiling was 5.25%. This year, accumulated inflation is already above the 5% limit.
minor unemployment
Expectations for the labor market also improved in the current survey compared to the previous survey and numerically approached the best results for the period, recorded in December 2021.
At the end of last year, 35% expected an increase in unemployment, the same percentage of those who predicted a fall. In June, 45% were pessimistic and 23% were optimistic.
Now, there are 36% who project a worsening of the labor market in the coming months and 37% who see improvement. This last data is the best for the four-year period.
The unemployment rate measured by the IBGE peaked at almost 14.9% in the first quarter of 2021 and closed last year at 11.1%. The most recent release shows a rate of 8.3% in the quarter ended in October.
According to Datafolha, optimism with price and labor market indicators is greater among people with less education and also among residents of the Northeast. Optimism is lower in the group of richer people.
Among those earning up to two minimum wages, 37% expect a drop in inflation. There are 9%, among those interviewed with income above ten minimums (70% in this last group expect an increase in the price index).
In the breakdown by occupation, 56% of entrepreneurs expect an increase in inflation and 17% project a fall. This is also the most pessimistic group in relation to employment: 45% say it will increase and 27% expect a decline.
It is also possible to see great differences in the political profile. Among people who voted for Bolsonaro in the second round, 67% expect high inflation. There are 14% among voters of President-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT). A drop in inflation is projected by 10% of voters of the current president and 53% of PT supporters.
Debts
The new Datafolha survey also shows a reduction or stability in Brazilian defaults in December compared to the survey carried out a year earlier. According to the survey, 38% of Brazilians have some debt or overdue account.
The share of those with overdue credit card debt ranged from 26% to 24%. There are 33% among the unemployed.
The percentage of consumers with overdue electricity bills increased from 17% to 12%. On the water bill, from 13% to 9%. Rents or real estate installments, from 9% to 7%.
In the gas bill, the percentage of delays increased from 6% to 4%. Vehicle installments and school fees remained at 5%. Shares of health plans, from 4% to 3%.
According to the institute, in general, women (42%) are more in default than men (34%). 46% of the poorest, 25% of the richest, 49% of those who declare themselves black (compared to 32% among whites) and 57% of the unemployed are in arrears.
Datafolha also asked if the money that the interviewee and his family earn is enough. For 60% it is not. It was 63% in the June survey.
For 37%, it is not enough and sometimes it is lacking. It is very little, causing many difficulties for 23% of respondents.
For 35%, it’s exactly what they need to live. Another 5% say it is more than enough.
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