Economists haven’t ruled out gas rationing in 2023 – Obstacle course to meet energy needs next winter
The vast majority of economists foresee a contraction of the economy, but also a burden on the labor market for the Eurozone in 2023, as a result of high inflation and possible energy shortages in the bloc. This follows from a related Financial Times poll, where 90% among 37 economists also said that the Eurozone is already in recession.
Energy crisis
Although a large portion of them estimated that the worst of the energy crisis is over for this year, some expressed concerns about rationing in 2023, especially if temperatures drop significantly or gas flows from Russia fall further.
“The risk of a natural gas bond issue has probably been averted for this winter, but the issue of energy supply next winter is still open,” Sylvain Broyer, chief economist for Europe, the Middle East and Africa at the Financial Times, told the Financial Times. S&P Global Ratings.
Economists polled in the poll noted that while Europe has turned to Norway, the US and the Middle East to make up for reduced flows from Russia, it will be harder to fill the gap in time for the winter of 2023.
“Varidi” and for the purchase of housing
The slowdown combined with the increase in mortgages is expected to weigh on the real estate market across Europe. On average, economists expect house prices to fall by 4.7% in 2023. Maria Dermetzi, deputy director of the European think tank Bruegel, told the Financial Times that house prices “will not continue to rise if we are into recession and lending rates rise”.
Economy
Economists expect the Eurozone economy to shrink by around 0.01% in 2023, which is a much more pessimistic forecast than the Commission and ECB forecasts of 0.3% and 0.5% respectively. They also expect inflation to remain above the 2% target for at least two more years. In particular, they predict it will rise to just over 6% in 2023 and almost 2.7% in 2024.
Also, wage growth is expected to reach 4.4% in 2023, well below the ECB’s 5.2%. Economists also forecast unemployment to rise to 7.1% at the end of 2023, from the Eurozone’s record low of 6.5% recorded in October this year.
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