Tebet will participate in the elaboration of a new fiscal rule and make dialogue with Congress

Senator Simone Tebet (MDB-MS) will have power at the head of the Ministry of Planning and Budget to influence crucial discussions in the future government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), including the new fiscal rule that will replace the current spending cap .

People close to the senator claim that this is a natural reform for the Planning team.

The future minister is also being advised to adopt the permanent evaluation of public policies as the flagship of her portfolio, connecting the practice to the process of drawing up and executing the Budget —which may eventually contribute to improving the accounts.

The adoption of this banner would compensate for the risk of taking over a body emptied after its frustrated attempt to place public banks under its umbrella and be left with shared management of the PPI (Investment Partnerships Program), responsible for privatizations and concessions, despite the MDB pleaded for full coordination.

According to PT members, in addition to participating in the technical formatting of the fiscal rule, the future minister has the political clout and experience to act as an interlocutor with parliamentarians when the time comes to discuss the details of this reform in Congress.

However, there are those in the political wing who see the risk of Tebet’s greater projection on economic issues and in articulation with Congress ending up overshadowing the work of Fernando Haddad (PT) on the Treasury. Both are names considered presidential candidates in 2026.

Tebet has been an advocate of the spending cap and tends to prefer a framework that gives predictability to spending. During her presidential campaign, she said that only one item could be left out of the ceiling, resources from the FNDCT (National Fund for Scientific and Technological Development), linked to the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation.

The senator’s program did not define the parameters for a new fiscal rule, but in general terms, the group of economists around her understood that a new government should seek to reorganize the budget structure in order to prioritize the use of surpluses for education, health, science and technology, considered the bases for long-term sustainable economic growth.

According to Haddad, the elaboration of the new framework is on the agenda after taking office, and a partnership is already expected in the elaboration of the changes.

“This was not discussed, but I consider it natural to listen to people even from outside the government,” said the future minister, who hopes for a good relationship with Tebet.

The economic team received several suggestions and hopes to discuss the issue with different interlocutors, even with the reduction of the deadline, defined in the PEC (proposed amendment to the Constitution) of Gastança, to finalize the new framework.

The elected government needs to present a proposal, via a supplementary bill, by August. Haddad has already stated that he wants to submit a text to Congress in the first half of the year.

The new government has been asked to present what will be the anchor for the trajectory of public accounts, especially after obtaining congressional approval to increase spending by approximately R$ 169 billion next year.

The Ministry of Planning will have one of Organs most central bodies on the Esplanade, which is the SOF (Secretary of the Federal Budget). It is within this structure that the annual Budget proposal is prepared, as well as its guidelines.

The folder is also responsible for preparing the PPA (Pluriannual Plan), where the government places its main priorities for the next four years.

Although it is a technical and operational task, budget control is also what will guarantee Tebet insertion in the government’s strategic discussions.

The attribution will also require the future minister to articulate with all the other ministries, which gives Planning a transversal character and opens the way for the body to act in the evaluation of public policies.

The practice, recommended internationally, is a way of telling whether public spending is reaching its objective or whether it is being done inefficiently. In the second case, they can be cut or redirected to other more needy areas.

Behind the scenes, there is the assessment that Tebet can use this agenda to implement relevant policies for the rebalancing of public accounts without picking up so many internal fights or becoming the target of friendly fire within the government.

For a representative of the liberal center in a left-wing government, defending spending cuts could be a complicating factor, but in the form of defending spending efficiency, it would be possible to reduce resistance, according to interlocutors.

Tebet is being advised to set up a structure within the ministry aimed at this end, integrating bodies such as IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) and Ipea (Institute of Economic and Applied Research), which can subsidize statistics and scenario projections.

In recent days, Tebet spoke with the president of the TCU (Union Court of Auditors), Minister Bruno Dantas, about the policy evaluation agenda.

“Simone Tebet at the Ministry of Planning is the right name, in the right place, at the right time. She will be able to count on TCU to structure a robust program of periodic evaluation of public policies, in search of efficiency. We have defended this need for years”, he said.

Julia Chaib and Renato Machado collaborated