Opinion – Marcos de Vasconcellos: I’ll guess: you didn’t win the Mega da Virada

One chance out of 50,063,860. That was his window of opportunity to win the Mega-Sena da Virada, with a game of six numbers. Let me guess: you didn’t get the prize.

The BRL 500 million jackpot —greater than the GDP of cities like Queluz (SP) or Caravelas (BA)— is the golden dream of anyone who has bills to pay. But don’t lose hope, your chances of lessening the pain of paying bills and improving your retirement options are much greater.

The fact that you are reading this text —which I wrote before knowing the result of the draw— shows your willingness to work for it. I hope I helped with the column I’ve been publishing here on Sheet since the pandemic brought down the markets, on the return of Carnival 2020.

By the way, with so much uncertainty in relation to the economy and stability (in Brazil and in the world) in 2023, the title of the first text I published in this series deserves to be repeated: despair makes money, but not for you. Take a deep breath and do your homework. Let’s go to her.

Consistency in investments always wins, in the long run. There’s a simple account that shows the power of this: If you start investing now, BRL 500 a month, even if you opt for low-profit savings, you’ll arrive in 2027 with BRL 27,684.16 in your account. If you leave it to start in two years, even putting twice as much money (R$ 1,000 per month), on New Year’s Eve 2027 you will have R$ 26,559.11. It’s potato.

I used the bad example of savings just to show that not even those who flee the investment world can escape the logic of compound interest. Putting the same money into more profitable assets —albeit as safe as savings—, the difference between one result and another is even greater.

Respect planning and safety. It’s no use having a portfolio of stocks and cryptocurrencies that doubled in value in one month if, the following month, when it dropped, you had to take out a loan to pay your car payment. Forming your emergency reserve is a must. Treasury bonds or CDBs from reliable banks, with daily liquidity —to withdraw whenever you want— are good choices for this reserve.

Don’t try to row against the tide. Millions of people around the world are looking at the same assets. Your friend may know a lot about oil, bitcoin, the dollar or stocks, but he is unlikely to have an “intellectual” that has not yet been discussed by bank strategists, investment fund managers or specialized analysts. Take advantage of this knowledge already produced in your favor.

By the way, forecasts tend to frustrate those who rely too much on them, but they serve as a guide for their decision-making. To help those who want to improve their knowledge of the market, I gathered in the Market Monitor the “bets” of large banks and managers for the coming year. The most interesting thing is that they all talk to each other and agree on one thing: It’s going to be a difficult year.

The ongoing war in Ukraine has raised the price of energy in Europe. The economic recession in the United States offers little hope for an economic recovery in the world’s greatest power. Uncertainties about the opening of the Chinese market hinder the plans of emerging markets.

In Brazil, we will have the return of a PT government, with an economic team with an unorthodox vision, almost antagonistic to that of Paulo Guedes. Changes and unpredictability are never easy on money. But leaving it to worry about later will make it even more difficult.

Inflation-linked bonds and shares of companies linked to the energy sector that depend little on the government seem to be safe bets for the moment. But it is in diversification that you will find good opportunities on your way. Happy 2023!