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Market raises inflation projections and sees Selic higher in 2024


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Analysts consulted by the Central Bank began to see the highest basic interest rate in 2024 amid rising expectations for inflation both this year and next, according to the Focus survey.

The survey still does not reflect possible changes after the invasion of the headquarters of the Three Powers in Brasília on Sunday (8), since it was closed on Friday (6). However, these are the first projections after the inauguration of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on January 1st.

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The survey, which captures the market’s perception of economic indicators, pointed out that expectations for the rise in the IPCA in 2023 and 2024 rose to 5.36% and 3.70%, respectively, from 5.31% and 3.65% before . For 2022, whose final data will be released on Tuesday (10), the projection for inflation was 5.62%.

All estimates exceed the center of the target, set at 3.5% for 2022, 3.25% for 2023 and 3.00% for 2024, always with a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points more or less.

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In the face of inflationary pressure, analysts maintain the perspective that the basic interest rate Selic will end this year at 12.25%, compared to the current level of 13.75%. But they started to see the rate at 9.25% in 2024, from 9.0% before.

For GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the growth estimate was adjusted by 0.01 percentage point downwards for 2022, to 3.03%, and retreated by 0.02 points for this year, to 0.78%. For the next year, the projection for growth of 1.50% remains.

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