At least 32% of the revenues of the VBP (Gross Production Value) of agriculture in the country will come from soy this year. Considering only the 17 main crops, without livestock, the oilseed’s share rises to 46%.
After having lost participation in 2022, due to the drop of 20 million tons caused by climate problems, the oilseed has returned to good progress this year.
The machines are already in the field for the 2022/23 harvest, and the estimate is for a record production of 152.7 million tons.
As there is no favorable scenario for production in Argentina and stocks are still low in the US, Brazilian producers will be able to obtain R$ 406 billion in revenue at the gate with the oilseed.
These estimates are from the General Coordination of Public Policies, of the Ministry of Agriculture, and take into account the volume to be produced and the value of the bag received by the producers.
Brazil is the world leader in soybean production, followed by the United States and Argentina. The three countries produce 82% of the world’s volume, and any weather problem in one of them helps to hold international prices.
Weather effects in Argentina, delaying planting, the easing of restrictions against Covid in China and a smaller share of Ukraine in the supply of vegetable oils, mainly sunflower, keep soybean prices warm in Chicago.
Corn, which follows in the footsteps of soybeans, occupying the area left by the oilseed after its harvest, will also provide record revenues for producers, which could reach R$ 152 billion this year, according to the Ministry of Agriculture. Cereal production will be a record in the country, totaling 125 million tons, according to Conab.
Heated exports and internal demand reduce ending stocks, which should remain below 5 million tons in this harvest, the lowest in 11 years. This reduces the room for price declines.
The third and fourth largest revenues in the field will come from cattle and poultry. After the acceleration of international prices and the increase in exports in recent years, which reflected in domestic values, the ton of fresh beef is starting to decline in the foreign market.
This month, the average ton exported is US$ 4,888, according to data released this Monday (16) by Secex (Secretary of Foreign Trade), below the US$ 5,233 of January 2022.
This reflects on domestic prices, which are falling, according to Cepea (Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics). As a result, the revenues of cattle ranchers inside the gate are expected to reach US$ 145 billion, 4.4% less than in 2022. It is the lowest value in four years.
This data is part of the 2022 VBP and estimates for 2023. This year, the total value should reach R$ 1.26 trillion, 6.3% more than in 2022, according to the Ministry of Agriculture.
The crop sector rose to R$ 882 billion, up 8.3%; and livestock goes to R$ 381 billion (+1.9%). On average, the evolution of income from agriculture will be 6.3%, if forecasts are confirmed.
This value, however, is adjusted according to changes in production and prices throughout the year. In 2022, the VBP had a retraction of 0.1%, compared to 2021.
Soybean and beef, two of the important players in agriculture and livestock, are going in the opposite direction in 2023. Soybean, after a drop in the VBP share to 28.5% in 2022, should return to 32.2%, due to the super harvest.
The cattle sector, which accounted for 12.7% of the agricultural VBP in 2022, will have a share of 11.5% this year, according to estimates by the Ministry of Agriculture.
Rice and beans, with smaller planting area, and consequent smaller supply of product, have higher prices. The participation of farmers’ income from these two basic products, however, is limited to 3% of agriculture.
Continuous droughts in the South have caused the region to lose share in the revenues obtained from crops. In 2022, it was 24.4%, below the 25.7% in the Southeast and 33.6% in the Midwest.
Paraná, second in the national ranking until 2021, lost the position to São Paulo last year. Rio Grande do Sul fell from 4th position, in 2021, to 6th, in 2022.
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