Dollar rises at opening after Lula’s criticism of independent BC

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The spot dollar showed an increase of more than 1% against the real in the first trades this Thursday (19), after criticism by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the independence of the Central Bank.

Abroad, the US currency weakened against a basket of strong currencies, but advanced against some of the main emerging debts.

At 9:14 am (Brasília time), the spot dollar advanced 1.48%, at R$ 5.2379 on sale.

The market is also waiting for a speech by Lael Brainard, vice-president of the Federal Reserve (Fed), the central bank of the United States, after other leaders of the monetary authority signaled, this Wednesday (18), that interest rates will rise to a level above 5%, which raised the dollar and interest rates in the local market.

The spot commercial dollar closed up 1.07% at R$5.161, after having reached R$5.06 at the low of the day, in the morning.

The Stock Exchange closed higher this Wednesday driven by Vale and banks, with improved prospects for China and news about the Americanas case. The Ibovespa closed up 0.70%, at 112,228 points.

Interest rates fluctuate, and longer maturities closed higher, reflecting, in addition to the news in the United States, caution with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s (PT) intention to raise the minimum wage above the R$ 1,302 forecast in the Budget.

Contracts maturing in 2024 fell from 13.48% at the close of this Tuesday (17) to 13.47%. For 2025, interest rates rose from 12.51% to 12.58%. For 2027, the rate advances from 12.36% to 12.45%.

Vale’s common stock closed up 1.31%, and was followed by steel companies listed on the Ibovespa. There is an expectation of acceleration in the reopening of the Chinese economy after the Lunar New Year holiday, which begins next Saturday (21) and lasts for a week.

The unfolding of the Americanas case also influenced the stock market this Wednesday. The retailer’s common stock fell 8.42%, but banks, which have more weight on the Ibovespa, rose.

BTG Pactual obtained a writ of mandamus against the projection obtained last week by Americanas in Justice, according to Sheet. As a result, the bank’s Units closed up by 2.21%.

The other big banks, which are Americanas’ creditors, also rose. Santander Units closed up 2.77%, and preferred shares in Itaú Unibanco advanced 1.80%. Bradesco’s preferred and common shares appreciated by 1.50% and 1.08%, respectively.

On public accounts, attention turns to discussions on the value of the minimum wage. President Lula had a meeting with trade unionists this Wednesday, with the participation of the Minister of Labor, Luiz Marinho.

After opening higher, the main US stock indices ended the day lower. The Dow fell 1.81%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped 1.56% and 1.24%, respectively.

The situation in the American market worsened after declarations given by Federal Reserve directors, the central bank of the United States. James Bullard and Loretta Mester maintained that interest rates are not yet at a level that would force a drop in inflation to levels close to the target, of 2% a year.

Last year, consumer inflation in the United States was 6.45%, and for Bullard, the Fed could raise the rate to a level between 5.25% and 5.50%, compared to 4.25% in 4 .50% current.

According to information from the US Department of Commerce, retail sales fell 1.1% in December compared to November. The data includes physical and online stores, as well as restaurants. In November, sales had already retreated 1% compared to October.

Other data released after the opening of business in the United States, such as the 2% drop in the production of machinery for companies and the slowdown in industrial prices, sparked an alert about the risks of recession in the country.

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