Opinion – Marcos de Vasconcellos: Will Americanas return to the popular table?

In just eight days, Americanas shares (AMER3) managed the feat of leaving the darlings’ table and occupying the unpopular bench of companies undergoing judicial recovery on the Stock Exchange. It now has Saraiva bookstore (SLED4) as its “neighbors”; the asbestos giant, Eternit (ETER3); and Teka (TEKA3), for bed, table and bath linen.

Going into judicial reorganization has its advantages, but the appreciation of shares is hardly one of them. The institute serves to stop charges, facilitate negotiations and allow the company to get back on track, even if at a slow pace. And who likes idling in the stock market? Ask Hi.

When Justice accepted the request for judicial recovery of the former telephony giant, in 2016, OIBR3 shares cost around R$ 1.52. During the recovery period, amid much speculation, they reached R$ 4.40. When it left the marathon, about a month ago, the price of OIBR3 on the Exchange was R$ 0.17. Seventeen cents!

Now, in January, to try to hold back the ups and downs of prices (volatility), Oi grouped its shares in a ratio of 10 to 1. In other words, those who had ten shares now have just one. The price equivalent to them kept falling.

History has not been kinder to the Saraiva bookshop (SLED4). Traded at around BRL 1.80 when the company entered into recovery — in November 2018 —, the shares reached BRL 0.20, before being grouped in the generous ratio of 35 to 1, at the end of 2021 Today, one share (which is equivalent to 35 shares in 2018) is selling for between R$1.70 and R$1.80.

The risk for those who buy shares of companies in recovery is also in the possibility of sudden changes in the direction of these companies.

It is common for recovery plans, which need to be approved by creditors and the courts, to change over time. With this, the company’s focus ends up changing, along with its perspective of return.

In other words, they become “event papers”. One piece of news ends up having the power to turn the stock price upside down. Which is unusual for blue chips, the stock market darlings.

A point that needs to be analyzed by anyone who wants to take the risk of investing in a company in recovery is the company’s liquidation value. That is: if it goes bankrupt today, will the sale of all its assets be able to pay all its debts and, even, its shareholders?

Trying to ignore the company’s balance sheets, looking only at the charts of Americanas shares, technical analyst Bo Williams, from the analysis house PhiCube, does not hesitate to say: “The share price has entered the region where buying is prohibited”.

And that doesn’t just apply to AMER3 papers. Americanas private credit securities, for example, are in the portfolio of several investment funds, including pension funds, which should, in principle, be as protected from this type of impact as possible.

So far, with the little information disclosed by Americanas since the company decided to reveal the billionaire gap in its balance sheets, it seems that the intention is to work to return to sit at the table with the most popular companies on the Exchange.

By hiring the former financial director (CFO) of Oi and Tim, Camille Loyo Faria, to take care of its balance sheets, the retailer signals that it liked what was done at the telephone company during its recovery process. Accusations against the executive at the CVM and the Greenfield operation bring a little insecurity to investors, but, despite being undervalued and sliced, Oi managed to leave the court-supervised recovery team. Still far from being a darling.

[email protected]