Investors should demand a higher premium on debt issues after Americanas, estimates XP

The magnitude of the accounting problems in the Americanas case, which culminated in the retailer filing for bankruptcy, created a climate of uncertainty in the credit market, which, in the view of the XP Investimentos team, should demand higher risk premiums.

“It is possible that the rates agreed with the financial institutions of the new issues that were in progress – of any company or sector – would have difficulty in being maintained at the same level practiced previously, or even cause a decision to postpone the issue”, said the head of fixed income from XP, Camila Dolle.

In a report also signed by analysts Mayara Rodrigues and Natalia Moura, the view is that a broader risk aversion movement in the secondary market triggered by the episode ends up “contaminating” the primary market as well, albeit during a relatively short window of time.

“In practice, this means that the credit risk reading has been repriced, and it is higher at the moment”, they said in the document published at the end of Friday (20).

But they also note that the understanding is that stress is under control and does not equate to what happened in March 2020, when stricter measures related to the Covid-19 pandemic began, as it was a one-off case.

They assess that it is no longer risky to invest in debentures, fixed income securities issued by companies, which generally present a higher risk than public securities, as well as bank securities, as they are not guaranteed by the Credit Guarantee Fund (FGC).

“The case of Americanas corroborates the understanding of the higher risk of debentures in relation to other fixed income options, in exchange for a comparatively higher remuneration”, they stated. “But it doesn’t make the instrument itself more risky.”

In the case of Americanas, they explained that, in a judicial recovery process, the first impact felt by the fixed income investor is seen in the custody position, since the company’s debt securities are no longer traded, and have their zero value on mark-to-market.

“This differs from stocks, which are no longer part of the stock exchange indices, but trading continues”, they added.

With the RJ, Americanas will also suspend the normal course of interest and principal payments on its debt securities, which will be subject to the conditions of the approved plan.

The XP team also stated that, from the publication of the general list of creditors, which must occur within 48 hours of the approval of the judicial recovery, the investor will know in which category he was classified and will be able to cast his vote against or in favor of the plan. at a meeting of creditors.