Analysis: Prates takes over Petrobras already under pressure for change in pricing policy

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Jean Paul Prates takes the interim command of Petrobras already under pressure from the Union, the controlling shareholder, for a change in the direction of the fuel price policy, but a significant change in the short term is not expected by market specialists.

In addition to the limitations set forth in the statute for Petrobras to contribute to public policies, a sudden break in the current trajectory of diesel and gasoline prices could unbalance the market and cause risks of shortages, since the country is very dependent on imports of these products.

“With the change to the new CEO, we don’t see a relevant impact on prices in the short term, not only due to statutory issues. He himself [Prates] has already made it clear that it will not let the price policy not follow an international behavior”, said the partner-director of Raion Consultoria, Eduardo Oliveira de Melo.

Petrobras raised the price of gasoline at refineries the day before by 7.5%, but analysts still see room for further readjustments.

Petrobras diesel prices considering the average in the main sales centers to distributors at the close of Wednesday are 2% below the import parity, while gasoline is 4% below, according to calculations by the Brazilian Association of Fuel Importers (Abicom) .

But the pressure from the federal government also comes at a time when the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, has been studying ways to return to charging federal taxes on diesel and gasoline —the latter expected to be resumed at the end of this month— without burdening the pockets of citizens. consumers.

In recent statements, Haddad has said that he is waiting for the new CEO to take office to find a solution with the state-owned company.

Prates, in turn, has defended the end of applying the import parity for the formation of the oil company’s prices, but says that the company will still follow international indicators.

Historically, Petrobras, which has shares traded on the stock exchange, has had to deal with attempts at political interference in its strategies and, since 2016, it has achieved some autonomy to adopt a pricing policy that follows international indicators, contributing to positive financial results and an opening of the market. market to other investors.

Large fuel distributors such as Vibra, Raízen and Ipiranga have invested heavily in import infrastructure in recent years, and today they seek part of their supply abroad, taking the responsibility off Petrobras of being the only one to supply the market.

Petrobras also carried out the privatization of the Rlam refinery, in Bahia, which represents 14% of the country’s total oil processing capacity, in another movement that reduced its relevance in the national supply.

The unit, renamed Mataripe, now belongs to Acelen, from the Mubadala Capital group, which has a fuel price policy with more frequent updates than Petrobras.

But all this did not happen without mishaps. Every time international prices soar, the oil company has been attacked by political and society segments, as being responsible for harming inflation. The PT defends that the oil company contributes to greater price stability.

STATUTORY IMPEDIMENTS

After major losses for subsidizing fuel prices at the behest of the government in the past, Petrobras’ bylaws began in recent years to provide for conditions for the company to have its activities guided by the Union.

Among the requirements, the statute provides that the company must be compensated by the government, when called upon to carry out activities in order to contribute to the public interest.

“The challenge he [Prates] is trying to reconcile a vision of a modern Petrobras, generating return for shareholders, with a more interventionist vision of the new government”, said Paulo Valois, partner at Schmidt Valois Advogados.

Valois pointed out that the government needs to find a solution to avoid price volatility for consumers through government policy.

“This situation goes through Petrobras, but it is much more governmental than simply using Petrobras. It is the government that has to act, Congress. This is government policy. [a Petrobras] you can’t just arrive and limit the price. It has responsibilities, governance, shareholders, Cade (Administrative Council for Economic Defense), it has a whole governance mechanism that does not allow it.”

The director of the Brazilian Center for Infrastructure (CBIE) Adriano Pires also spoke out against possible state intervention in Petrobras, arguing that 2022 may have been the best year in the company’s history.

“It paid record taxes, royalties and special participations. In addition to record dividends for its shareholders. It beat production targets, staying above the center of the target… These results show that the policy of giving greater autonomy to the company’s management, without direct government interventionism is the best path,” he said.

For Pires, Prates’ nomination is a good one, as he knows the oil and gas sector and still has good traffic in Congress. “It’s not possible to talk about it now. Let’s wait for him to arrive. But I think he meets all the conditions for good management”, he concluded.

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