“The reversal of the trend is here,” Ifo’s head of budget affairs, Timo Volmershoeiser, told the Süddeutsche Zeitung.
Inflation between 4 and 6% is predicted for 2023 by the Ifo Institute for Economic Research in Munich and estimates that “the peak of inflation has been passed”. In 2022 inflation in Germany was 7.9%, while estimates for this year were for prices close to 9%.
“The reversal of the trend is here,” Ifo’s head of budget affairs, Timo Volmershoeiser, told the Süddeutsche Zeitung, noting that the “brake” on electricity and natural gas prices alone is enough to reduce inflation by two points. In addition, he explains, inflation is also limited by the fact that energy is in some cases cheaper again. Indicatively, the price of oil is even lower than before the Russian attack on Ukraine.
“In 2022, inflation was also caused by the atmosphere in the financial markets, by war and fear, with the result that energy prices in the spot markets are excessive,” Guder Schnabl, head of the Institute for Macroeconomics and Business Cycle Research, told the newspaper. of the University of Leipzig.
The vice-president of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Stefan Koots, even predicts that in the long run energy prices will not cause an increase in inflation. Mr. Schnable, however, warns of the risk of inflation rising due to high public spending in the Eurozone countries.
RES-EMP
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