Opinion – Eduardo Sodré: Year ends with 3% growth in the sale of light and heavy vehicles

The year 2021 ends with 2.1 million light and heavy vehicles registered. The data, which is based on Renavan (National Register of Automotive Vehicles) calculated up to December 29, is frustrating for the automotive sector. The growth will be approximately 3% compared to 2020.

The result is far from what was dreamed of in January, when Anfavea (association of automakers) predicted 15% growth in sales. The forecast was even conservative: Fenabrave (the association of vehicle distributors) expected a 16% increase in licensing.

There were reasons for optimism: the market underwent a strong recovery in the second half of 2020, and the month of December of that year registered a daily average of 11,600 units sold. A year later, the number is at 9,700 vehicles/day.

Since then, interest in buying a new car has remained, despite the economic scenario discouraging large investments in consumer goods. But they lacked parts and, consequently, cars.

About 300,000 cars stopped being produced this year, mainly due to the shortage of semiconductors. The supply shows signs of improvement, but regularization should only take place in the second half of 2022.

There are, however, no illusions about a major advance in the next year. The bad mood of the economy in an election year is expected, and the accumulated rise in prices is added to the more expensive credit. The rise in the Selic rate is already reflected in automotive financing.

In early December, a survey by classifieds portal Webmotors showed how much respondents were willing to spend on a car. According to the survey, 68% of those who intend to purchase a vehicle want to pay up to R$ 60 thousand. For these potential customers, all that remains is to resort to the used car market.

The repositioning of the automakers’ portfolio will extend through 2022, with several models and versions being discontinued, while new options will reach the market.

Among the casualties are the Chevrolet Joy (hatch and sedan), the flex versions of the S10 pickup trucks (also from General Motors) and Toyota Hilux, the Honda Fit, the Fiat Uno and the Volkswagen Fox.

Some cars are being “retired” because there is no commercial interest in adapting them to the new environmental rules. Starting in January, new national cars will have to meet the seventh stage of the Proconve (Vehicular Emission Control Program), with reductions in noise and emission levels.

The place of those leaving will be occupied by models such as the Citroën C3, the Honda City hatch, the Chevrolet Montana double-cab pickup and the Volkswagen Polo Track.

However, there are no new cars with prices below R$ 60 thousand on the horizon. The cheapest zero-kilometer models should start at R$ 65,000.

The scenario makes retailers run after used cars, which today are more profitable for dealers than brand new models.

According to KBB Brasil, a company specializing in car pricing, 2018 vehicles had an average high of 19.64% over 2021.

But the more expensive credit also impacts the used car sector, which may not repeat this year’s performance. Until November, 13.9 million used vehicles had been traded in the country, an increase of 23.9% compared to 2020.