Four more rate hikes and an acceleration of the ECB’s plan to shrink its massive bond portfolio have economists discounting a poll of Bloomberg.

Economists expect that at the March meeting next week, the ECB it will result in an increase of half a percentage point, as the President of the Bank, Christine Lagarde, recently hinted. After that, they foresee three additional increases of 25 basis points each. Ultimately, the peak is seen at the level of 3.75% in July, according to economists.

It is worth noting that its analysts too Goldman Sachs and her Deutsche Bank expect to peak at 3.75%, but in June. On the contrary, Morgan Stanley and Barclays they see a peak at 4%, as do the markets. A lower level at 3.5% is seen by JP Morgan and Citi.

At the same time, economists expect that the ECB will move faster in terms of shrinking the huge 5 trillion bond portfolio. euro. They now expect that after an initial contraction of €15 billion per month until June, the rate of contraction will double by 2024.

It is noted that economists attribute the new expectations to the record-high structural inflation, which provides support to the “hawks” of the ECB. This measure, which excludes volatile energy and food costs, is accelerating, even as headline inflation is easing. This divergence escalates tensions within the ECB’s executive board regarding the Bank’s next moves.

Source: moneyreview.gr