After closing down in the first three sessions of the year, the Brazilian Stock Exchange rehearsed a timid recovery this Thursday (6th).
The Ibovespa, the main stock index in the local market, fluctuated with moderate gains throughout practically the entire session, ending the day with an appreciation of 0.55%, at 101,561 points.
The move came after the sharp drop of 2.4% recorded the day before, which almost caused the market index to lose the 101,000-point mark, in the wake of signals from the United States about the beginning of the tightening of financial conditions and currencies in the largest global economy in 2022.
According to Victor Lima, an analyst at Toro Investimentos, the day of gains for the local stock exchange was mainly due to the support provided by shares of commodity exporting companies, such as Vale, which saw its shares advance 2.02%, trading at R$79 .38 at the end of the session.
Carrefour’s shares also closed in the positive field, with a rise of 2.22%, at R$ 14.27. The move in this case came on the heels of a report published by Bloomberg reporting that the French supermarket chain Auchan would be holding talks with groups of investors with the aim of making a proposal to acquire a relevant stake in the competitor.
The news about the possible deal made the supermarket chain’s shares clash with its peers – Pão de Açúcar’s shares were down 3.77% this Thursday, at R$ 19.42, while Via’s shares retreated 4.60%, to BRL 4.36.
On the domestic agenda, the highlight of the day was the industrial production data released by the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics).
Brazilian industrial production dropped 0.2% in November 2021, compared to October. It is the sixth consecutive drop of the indicator.
The result represents another sign of the fragility of the economy in the fourth quarter of last year. With the new negative performance, industrial production was 4.3% below the pre-pandemic level of February 2020, pointed out the IBGE.
The November data came at a lower level than expected by the market. Analysts consulted by the Bloomberg agency projected an increase of 0.1%.
According to Rodolfo Margato, an economist at XP, restrictions in supply chains — especially the shortage of semiconductors and chips — have been severely damaging the automotive and electronics manufacturing sectors.
“Looking ahead to 2022, we expect a gradual reduction in supply chain bottlenecks that have been holding back industrial production. For example, more and more companies in Asia report that factory shutdowns, interruptions in energy supply and limitations on port structures have significantly diminished. significant over the last few weeks”, pointed out Margato, in a note.
He adds that he does not expect severe mobility restrictions due to the spread of the omicron variant of the coronavirus, although he recognizes that the problem is a relevant risk factor to be monitored.
In the United States, the Toro analyst points out, stocks were under intense volatility, especially in the technology sector, with investors still reflecting the Federal Reserve’s (Fed, the US central bank) signals about the bullish cycle. interest rates ahead of schedule in the largest global economy in 2022.
Fed officials indicated on Wednesday that interest rates may need to be raised sooner than expected in the face of inflationary pressure, according to the minutes of the monetary policy meeting held in December.
Monetary policymakers agreed to accelerate the end of the bond purchase program — implemented at the beginning of the pandemic — and forecast an early rate hike, reaching 0.75 percentage point during 2022.
The S&P 500 closed slightly down 0.10%, while the Nasdaq was down 0.13%, and the Dow Jones reported losses of 0.47%.
On the dollar, the day also saw some adjustment after the previous session of sharp volatility. The American currency ended with a fall of 0.54% against the real, quoted at R$ 5.6790 for sale, after having reached the mark of R$ 5.71 the day before.
“Apparently yesterday [quarta, 5] the market has already absorbed almost all the harsher tone of the Fed’s minutes”, says Fernanda Consorte, chief economist at Banco Ourinvest, in reference to the behavior of the currency this Thursday.
In any case, the still high level at which the US currency continues to be quoted, adds the expert, incorporates the environment of lower global liquidity, as well as uncertainties regarding the evolution of public accounts in Brazil in an election year. “We should continue to see the dollar close to the level of R$ 5.70 in the next trading sessions”, says the economist.
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