Vehicle production has a high of 11.6% in 2021 and Anfavea makes a timid forecast for 2022

Anfavea (association of automakers) released this Friday (7th) production data for 2021 and projections for 2022. The entity expects the sector to manufacture 2.46 million vehicles this year, which will represent a growth of 9.4 % compared to the previous period.

According to Luiz Carlos Moraes, president of Anfavea, the calculation considers that the GDP will grow by 0.5% this year, accompanied by the cooling of the health crisis and the resumption of confidence.

The entity also considers the negative points. The forecast is that 2022 will end with a Selic rate of 11%, which will affect credit. In addition, the election period, rising costs, inflation above the target, exchange rate fluctuations and logistical problems will harm business.

However, Anfavea does not take into account future production interruptions due to the omicron variant. “It is a matter of concern, we are following it daily and we cannot underestimate the impact of this new wave, but we are not considering the negative impact at this time”, says the president of the entity.

Despite the problems, the automakers association expects this year to be more stable than it was 2021, which ended with 2.25 million vehicles manufactured.

In relation to 2020, there was an increase of 11.6% in production, with emphasis on the truck sector, which had 158,800 units produced – growth of 74.6% compared to the previous year.

However, the initial expectation was for a 25% increase in vehicle assembly in Brazil, a figure that has been revised over the past year.

The consultancy IHS calculates that the pre-pandemic level of global production will only be reached again in 2025. “We have no reason to be different”, says Moraes, considering that the country was still going through a moment of recovery in 2019.

In sales, the association of automakers is more optimistic than Fenabrave and is betting on a high of 8.5% in the licensing of light and heavy vehicles. On Thursday (6), the association that represents vehicle distributors projected a 4.6% growth in sales.

Whether 4% or 8%, both predictions are cautious. The automotive sector is scorched after a 2021 with a rise of only 3% in licenses, and the year had started with an expectation of 16% growth.

With the results, Brazil rose one position among the largest vehicle producers and, according to Anfavea, closed 2021 in eighth position, behind Mexico. In sales, the country remained in seventh place.

Pre-pandemic stocks were enough to supply 42 days of marketing, but now there are cars available to supply only 16 days. Moraes says this is a global problem, with the same behavior repeating itself in the US and other markets. The same goes for the price of cars.

Between January 2020 and December 2021, there was an average increase of 14% in the prices of brand new cars in Brazil and of 25% in the values ​​negotiated in the used car segment. The data released by Anfavea were collected by KBB, a company specialized in vehicle pricing.

The most significant increases occurred in São Paulo, due to the increase in ICMS (Tax on the Circulation of Goods and Services). The rate, which was 12% at the end of 2020, is now 14% for new vehicles.

The result appears in the distribution of sales across the country. The registrations in São Paulo fell by 8% in 2021 compared to the previous year. For the first time, the state lost its leadership in the automotive trade, being overtaken by Minas Gerais in the national ranking.

Exports grew 16% in 2021, with 376,400 units shipped abroad. In values, the increase was 37.8%.

The result, however, is still far from what was achieved in 2018. That year, approximately 630,000 units were exported, and Moraes says that the pandemic and the difficulties in producing do not justify such a difference. “The current result is far below what the industry could do if the obstacles we face were eliminated.”

The president of Anfavea continues to demand the tax reform. Among the expected changes is the end of the IPI (Tax on Industrialized Products), which, according to the entity, is only charged in Brazil.

“Why is there an IPI and not an IPA, a tax on agricultural products?”, asks Moraes.

But the executive intends to remain more restrained regarding the criticism made of the federal government, which marked the first half of 2021. “I will use the phrase I heard from a German executive: ‘I am not a man’s man, I am a man’s man. an idea’. Anfavea will defend a state policy, it will continue to defend structural reforms.”