The course of the Greek stock market during the pre-election period surprised even the most optimistic. Political risk has been downgraded, discounting the formation of a government in the upcoming new election.

The A.A. is at the top of yields globally, hovering near nine-year highs, indicating significant capital is gradually heading to Greece. Everything shows that investors are not only not afraid of tomorrow, but believe that it is only a matter of time before the investment grade comes.

Based on Thursday’s close, the Athens Stock Exchange’s General Price Index was the second best-performing among the world’s major indices, with gains of 21.55% in 2023, behind the Russian Stock Exchange’s MOEX. At the same time the DAX gains 16.09%, the Cac-40 15.03%, the S&P 500 9.34%, while the Dow Jones gains only 1.17%.

The country is marching towards the elections in an environment of fiscal stability and better economic performance, confirmed on all sides. From the international organizations (IMF, EU), from the rating agencies, from the markets and from the course of the budget, which describe the progress of the Greek economy.

The country’s finances are on track, with a return to primary surpluses as early as 2022, as last year’s fiscal picture is significantly better than budget projections.

In fact, the economic progress is the reason why the markets are calm, despite the electoral uncertainty, as noted in an article by the Economist.

The international houses continue to publish reports confirming their vote of confidence in the positive prospects of the Greek Economy and the Stock Exchange. Thus, Morgan Stanley estimates that “there will be no policy change regardless of the outcome of the election.”

The FT sings the eulogy of Greece which achieved the great turnaround and is heading from the “trash” to the investment stage.

Barclays considers that the elections of May 21 “open the new megacycle of multi-year development of Greece” and expects an upgrade of Greek Assets.

The growth rates of the Greek economy are also supporting the stock market.

The upward cycle in which the Greek economy is located will continue, leading economists of international banks, rating agencies and think tanks estimate, even considering that it is relatively protected from the increase in interest rates internationally, while it will continue to grow in the coming years well above the eurozone average.

One after the other, the foreign houses estimate that the recovery will continue in Greece and despite the fact that economic growth slowed down in most countries of the eurozone, Greece continues to recover and outperform in terms of GDP growth. The Commission revised the forecasts and sees growth for Greece in 2023 at 2.4% from the 1.2% it forecast in February, twice the eurozone average.

UBS is “bullish” on Greece and “sees” surprise growth of 4.1% for Greece in 2023 and to 3.2% in 2024. At the same time, the Eurozone will “run” at a rate of 1% this year from 3 .5% last year to land further in 2024 at 0.8%. Consequently, Greece, according to the forecasts of the Swiss bank, will record 4 times the growth rate of the Eurozone and lower inflation by more than 2 percentage points.

Equity results continue to point to the upside, while all the macro data shows that they are not just on target, but in several cases much better. The results of the listed companies for the first quarter of the year continue the strong course in 2022. The Greek banks certify, with their results already published by Piraeus, Alpha Bank and Eurobank, that they are capital protected, with a healthy portfolio, improved net interest income and ultimately strong profitability, which is expected to continue throughout the year.

The “pre-election” returns

In the last, pre-election month, from the high capitalization, the increase was registered by the shares of Ethniki (+11.99%), Viohalco (+10.49%), Coca Cola HBC (+9.53%), Eurobank (+ 8.22%), Titan (+6.13%), Autohellas (+5.07%), Sarantis (+5.00%), Jumbo (+4.45%), Piraeus (+ 2.25%), OPAP (+1.43%) and Elvalhalcor (+0.60%).

Conversely, the shares of EYDAP (-8.77%), Terna Energy (-6.90%), Lamda (-6.07%), Motor Oil (-4.19%), ELPE ( -2.75%), Quest Participations (-2.56%), PPA (-2.46%), Mytileneos (-2.19%), PPC (-1.70%), Ellaktor (-1.67%), GEK TERNA (-1.48%), Aegean Airlines (-1.12%), Alpha Bank (-0.63%) and OTE (-0.36%).

Returns from early 2023

Since the beginning of 2023, the biggest increase is recorded by the shares of MIG (+268.62%), Kloukinas-Lappas (+92.19%), Piraeus (+64.12%) and Cenergy (+61.75 %). On the contrary, the biggest losses were recorded by the securities of Frigoglass (-41.52%), Akritas (-22.71%), Mermeren (-22.08%) and Mylos Kepenou (-13.39%).

Of the high capitalization shares, the biggest increase since the beginning of the year was recorded by the following shares: Piraeus (+64.12%), Aegean Airlines (+49.53%), National (+44.06%), Jumbo (+ 38.17%), Eurobank (+36.02%), Titan (+32.17%), Autohellas (+32.05%), Mytileneos (+31.92%), Coca Cola HBC (+29.65 %), Viohalco (+23.60%), PPC (+23.57%), PPA (+20.38%), Alpha Bank (+18.40%), OPAP (+18.29%) and Electric (+17.78%).

On the contrary, the shares recorded a fall: EYDAP (-9.71%), Terna Energy (-7.26%), OTE (-5.76%), Lamda Development (-4.79%), ELPE (-1, 98%) and Motor Oil (-1.56%).