Analysis: Bolsonaro ignores basic political calculation in server readjustment soap opera

Jair Bolsonaro was noted for ignoring basic political calculations when making decisions. When opposing vaccination or organizing attacks against institutions, the president clung to principles of fidelity and survival instincts, ignoring the damage he could reap from the failure of these maneuvers.

The same logic outlines the mess Bolsonaro got himself into by promising a salary increase only for police officers in 2022. With little cash in his pocket, the president decided to indulge an important (albeit limited) pillar of his political base, at the cost of a dissatisfaction that spreads to larger sections of the federal civil service.

Several categories of civil servants took advantage of the government’s clumsy move to express discomfort and demand similar increases. With a stoppage forecast this Tuesday (18), these groups intend to wall up Bolsonaro and threaten to produce embarrassment in highly visible services, such as the activities of the Revenue in ports and airports.

It is too early to measure the possible damage that the mobilization can cause to the government – ​​which will depend on the adhesion of the employees and the headaches that the interruption can cause to the population. The acts, however, already show that Bolsonaro’s political impulses create more difficulties than direct benefits in the election year.

The president operates with a deregulated balance in this final stretch of term. With a timid portfolio of achievements and a limited budget, Bolsonaro prefers to invest his few financial and political resources in the loyalty of a slice of his base. The aim is to preserve some chance in this year’s campaign, even if those moves are insufficient to build a majority in the short term.

There is a dense symbolism in the promise made to the police. By prioritizing these categories, Bolsonaro intends to reiterate the idea that he values ​​law and order – an image he explored in the 2018 campaign. In addition, he tries to soften the weight of his evident efforts to weaken the work of the Federal Police.

Other possible motivations are more nebulous, though believable. If Bolsonaro goes ahead with insinuations that he will contest the election result in the event of defeat, the goodwill of the security forces will be decisive.

The generosity of the federal government can also provoke pressure from the military police on governors in favor of similar readjustments. Such a scenario has the potential to create friction in the states, which would strengthen the ties of these agents with Bolsonarism.

The president’s political choice was clear. Just two months ago, Bolsonaro said he would give a salary increase in 2022 to “all federal servants, without exception”. In December, things changed. With the budget tight, the government realized that it could only give a residual increase for the entire civil service or a more expressive percentage for a specific slice.

The choice came from the president, but there was a complete operation to make the business viable. Minister Paulo Guedes (Economy) endorsed the reserve of R$ 1.7 billion for the increase in the categories pointed out by Bolsonaro, and the governing base in Congress approved the proposal.

Now, Bolsonaro can give in to pressure and extend the benefit to other categories, but he would lack money for that. It can also go ahead with the increase in the number of police officers, hiring the opposition of the other civil servants. The red button would be the cancellation of the readjustment, but even so the president would not get rid of the discomfort that he himself created. It will be difficult to get out of this episode unscathed.