New assessments will start from August 4 – Critical month September – “Guarantee” the result of the elections and the stable government
A matter of a few weeks, if not days, after the government’s policy statements, it is expected that the achievement of investment gradeas after the elections there is a stable government with a strong parliamentary majority, declared the Governor of the Bank of Greece, Yannis Stournaras in an interview he gave to the Bloomberg agency.
Indeed, the planned evaluations of the Greek debt are not long in coming. Credit rating agency Scope, which rates Greece one step below investment grade, will give its new verdict on August 4 with the prospects high for an upgrade that would automatically mean investment grade.
In space from September 8 to December 1 we will have new verdicts from all four of the big houses that the European Central Bank takes into account, with three of them – Fitch, S&P and DBRS – also rating Greece one step below investment grade.
All three of these houses are very likely to proceed with upgrades that will mean the recovery of investment grade 13 years after it was lost at the beginning of the debt crisis.
Greece will be evaluated first in the series by DBRS on September 8, while a week later, on September 15, Moody’s will follow, which is expected to upgrade the Greek debt without giving the investment grade, as it is the only house whose assessment is significantly away from it (three grades). On October 20th is S&P’s turn and the cycle for this year will close with Fitch on December 1st.
All rating agencies gave a preview of the stance they will take after the June 25 elections, emphasizing the political stability ensured by their result.
DBRS Country Rating Lead, Nicola Jamessaid: “The outcome of the Greek election ensures policy continuity… Continued structural reforms and growth-enhancing investment, within a framework of fiscal discipline, could continue to help Greece’s creditworthiness.”
In his analysis, Fitch said that the outcome of the election significantly reduces the risks of potential political instability and allows policy continuity. “This means that economic reforms and fiscal adjustment, which have supported growth and benefited the sustainability of public finances in recent years, are expected to continue.” He also noted that the government’s re-commitment to reforms could lead to higher-than-forecast growth.
Moody’s noted that New Democracy’s victory will ensure continued focus on improving the business environment and the health of the banking sector, which combined with the implementation of the milestones and reforms of the national recovery and resilience plan will support the economic development. “Combined with a commitment to fiscal adjustment and increasing primary surpluses, maintaining current fiscal and economic policies will improve the prospects for a significant reduction in Greece’s public debt,” the house said in its analysis.
On his part, Mr S&P noted: “The center-right New Democracy party secured an absolute majority in Sunday’s elections in Greece. Consequently, the new government should be able to continue its growth-friendly reforms, including, among others, reducing the processing time of cases in the courts and modernizing the regulatory framework for state-owned enterprises.”
“Reforms and fiscal outcomes will be key factors to consider in our next rating decision on Greece,” S&P added.
Source: Skai
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