By Chrysostomos Tsoufis

Brazil, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Russia, S. Arabia. They are just some of the countries that by June will have higher food inflation than they have now. Fortunately in Europe food inflation will drop to 1/3 of today’s 3%, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t brace for food increases next year as well.

To shield themselves from shortages and high prices, many countries have chosen to ban exports of products they produce, of course causing problems for other countries. It is estimated that more than 30 bans are currently in force:

INDIA – The country that has the most active bans and has caused the most problems in the global supply chain (after Russia and Ukraine). Until the end of the year it has banned exports of corn, wheat, rice and sugar.

Rice alone has caused a deficit equal to 20% of world exports.

TURKEY – Tayyip Erdogan’s government has banned the export of beef, mutton and goat meat until at least 2024. There is also a ban on cooking oil, red lentils and beans.

MOROCCO – Since the beginning of August, the country has banned the export of tomatoes, potatoes and fruit to the rest of West Africa

TUNISIA – To deal with the record prices seen after Ramadan, exports to anywhere in the world of fresh fruits and vegetables were banned

THE INDONESIA has banned the export of palm oil of which it is the largest producer in the world, the SERBIA flour, corn and wheat, the PAKISTAN the sugar and CAMEROON cereals.

According to all analyses, the amount of these increases will be determined by 3 main factors:

-Climate change, which is unknown where, when and in what form it will manifest itself across the planet, the phenomena are, however, of increasing intensity

-Especially 2023 and the first months of 2024 are a period of EL NINIO which has already caused the hottest summer of the century for Southeast Asia with what this means for the harvests.

-How much longer will the war between Ukraine and Russia last, 2 countries that also do not export grain, cereals, barley and fertilizers among other things