Limiting tax evasion has been a constant pursuit of all governments over time. In the last few years, however, some steps seem to have been taken and as can be seen based on the measurements made by the Commission, as well as the estimates by the Greek government.

Specifically, in the last 4 years, additional revenues for the state budget have been generated, on a constant basis, of the order of 2.5 billion euros.

Sources from the Ministry of Finance state that the goal is that in 2026 the additional amount that will arise for the state coffers on a permanent and annual basis is an additional 2 billion euros.

These additional revenues, combined with the growth of the economy, will cover part or all of the possible additional social benefits or tax reductions.

The calculations are based on the VAT gap, as measured by the Commission. As sources from the Ministry of Finance point out, it is the only objective element that can measure tax evasion.

In the Ministry of Finance, they estimate that the measures that are in the implementation stage, as well as those that have already been implemented, will bring the desired result, that is, the disclosure of undeclared income.

Among others, the POS – cashier interface, pre-populated VAT and income returns based only on income and expenditure invoices passing through MyDATA, POS expansion across the market and changes to the way self-employed are taxed are among others.

Regarding the VAT gap, this was in 2019 in Greece, according to the Commission’s reports, at 23.4% and a year later it fell to 19.7%. Today, according to the calculations of the Ministry of Finance, the gap is at 15%.

According to the calculations, the gain of 8.4 percentage points brings in additional revenue on a permanent basis of 2.5 billion per year. Of this additional revenue of €2bn comes from VAT and €500m from an increase in corporate income tax, as more profits are revealed.

The goal of the financial staff is for the VAT gap to reach the European average of 9% in 2026. This, if achieved, translates into an additional 2 billion euros in public revenue.

However, in the draft budget 2024, no additional revenues from the crackdown on tax evasion have been recorded. VAT receipts are forecast to rise to €24.2 billion in 2024 from €23.1 billion this year.

Based on the latest available data from the Commission’s report, the following key conclusions emerge:

• Greece in 2020 was among the four best performing EU member states in closing the gap after Hungary which reduced the gap by 4.7 percentage points, Germany with 4.2 percentage points and the Netherlands with 4, 1 percentage points.

• Romania recorded the highest national VAT gap at 35.7% of revenue, followed by Malta at 24.1% and Italy at 20.8%. Conversely, the smallest gaps were observed in Finland (1.3%), Estonia (1.8%) and Sweden (2%).

• Apart from Germany and the Netherlands, Spain and Latvia managed to limit the loss of VAT revenue to less than 5% of the VAT due.

• The gap increased year-on-year in only six Member States – Croatia, Cyprus, Ireland, Romania, Austria and Belgium. The largest increases were observed in Croatia (6 percentage points) and Cyprus (5 percentage points).

• In nominal terms, the largest gaps were recorded in Italy (€26.2 billion), France (€14 billion) and Germany (€11.1 billion).