With the drought, the sack of soybeans exceeds, for the first time, R$ 200 in the South region. This price reflects not only the prolonged drought but a combination of factors.
Good for producers who were not affected by the drought, and who will obtain regular production, this drop is bad for those who were, since this was a crop with an increase in production costs.
The high also spills over the consumer’s pocket, which, once again, will feel the change in the level of oilseed derivatives, especially cooking oil.
The IGP-DI of this Monday (7) already points to this acceleration. Agricultural products rose 2.63% wholesale in January, accumulating 18.1% in 12 months. Soybean rose from a high of 0.9% in December to 5.6% last month.
The increase in oilseeds caused a 14.1% readjustment in the prices of soybean meal, an important component of feed and animal protein production costs.
Daniele Siqueira, an analyst at AgRural, cites other pressure factors on world prices. The drought in South America supports the oilseed in Chicago, the main international exchange for trading the product.
The financial market also drives prices. While the US central bank does not raise interest rates, investors seek profit in commodities, injecting money into the sector.
The fall of the dollar index, a basket of currencies, supports agricultural products on the international market. In Brazil, the value of the dollar, in relation to the real, also supports exports.
The Brazilian difficulty in exports, a period in which the country is the main supplier to the foreign market, forces the importer to seek the product in the United States, putting even more pressure on the Chicago Stock Exchange.
Premiums paid to those who still have the product to export and a barrel of oil above US$ 90 also keep commodity prices at a high level.
This will be a week of new official figures on the crop failure, and this leaves the market more agitated. The USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) releases a balance of supply and demand this Wednesday (9), while Conab (National Company and Supply) presents its figures on Thursday (10).
Market prices already reflect a good part of this crop reduction, but stronger indications of breakage by these bodies may give a new level to the price of soybeans.
The production reduction numbers are practically already given, according to Daniele. The three main producers in South America —Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay— are expected to lose close to 30 million
tons, in relation to the initial production potential.
Several consultancies estimate the Brazilian harvest between 125 million and 130 million tons. The most pessimistic data, however, point to 120 million, a number considered too low by the analyst.
Argentina, with an initial forecast of 49 million tons, should harvest close to 43 million. The February weather, however, is still decisive for the neighboring country’s harvest.
Paraguay, which expected 10 million tons, should get only 5 million.
Although the Brazilian harvest is at a higher rate than the average of the last five years, soy is not arriving at the ports.
Paraná, the third largest national producer, had a drop in production. Mato Grosso, the main national producer, maintains a normal harvest, but is harvesting a wet product, due to rains in the region. This requires a longer period for drying, making it difficult for the oilseed to go to the ports.
The drought caused a reduction in grain size, which means a smaller volume per hectare. Many producers affected by the drought are already able to harvest soy, but are waiting for insurance experts to assess the damage.
As long as these, already delayed according to producers, do not go to the fields to assess the losses and determine the value of the insurance to be paid, the producer will not be able to carry out the harvest.
Daniele believes that the option of some importers for American soy is punctual. While the Chinese receive Brazilian soy for US$ 612 per ton, the American soy arrives in the country for up to US$ 649, depending on the export port.
On Friday (4), the bag of soybeans was traded at R$ 203 in Passo Fundo (RS). A month ago it was at R$ 180. In Cascavel (PR), it closed the week at R$ 190, and, in Sorriso (MT), at R$ 172, according to a survey by the
Agricultural
On the Chicago Stock Exchange, the first contract ended last week at US$15.54 a bushel (27.2 kg), up from US$13.79 a month ago.
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