“Greece and the Greek stock market will be the cover of the next few years”, noted Mr Marshall Stockerits head of emerging markets Morgan Stanley at the end of last summer, with international investment houses, in the last months of 2023 renewing their confidence in the Greek economy and Greek assets and placing them high in their investment options for 2024 as well.

The prospects for the new year, according to the analysts, are auspicious for the Greek Stock Exchange, as they are fueled by the positive estimates for the country’s GDP, the sizes of Listed Companies, but also the prospect of the return of the Greek stock market to the developed markets

External uncertainties could affect the course of the Greek economy and, by extension, the stock market, which, however, in 2023, despite geopolitical developments, proved resilient, continuing the virtuous cycle of economic growth for the third consecutive year. After +8.4% in 2021, +5.6% in 2022 and a probable +2.4% for 2023, the estimated growth for 2024 is at least 2.4% according to many international organizations and investment houses and is one of the highest in the eurozone.

The significant improvement in the sizes of listed companies and banks justify the high performance of 2023 in the stock market, which is not overvalued, however, as large-cap share prices are trading with an expected 2024 p/e of 7 to 8.

Technically, the passage of the General Index into the area of ​​10-year highs between gives the next quarter the level milestone of 1400 units. A level just passed takes us almost 12 years back, to May 2011 just before we made the big historic “plunge” a year later to 471 units. Technically, in this context, the market is initially targeting the 2014 high of 1,379 units.

The stock market in 2024 will be supported by:

– In the development perspective of Greece: According to the Commission, in 2023 Greece will have twice the economic growth rate of the average European average and in 2024, a more difficult year for Europe. According to the Commission, Greece will be the champion among all the countries of the European Union in the period 2022-2024 in investment growth rate, due to the increased flows of European funds (Recovery Fund and NSRF mainly).

The forecast of the Ministry of National Economy is more optimistic (Growth of 2.4% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024) compared to the corresponding ones of international Organizations (EU: Growth of 2.4% and 2.3%, IMF: Growth 2.5% and 2.0% , MoE: Growth 2.4% and 2.5% ). Greece now has the third highest growth rate, well above the EU average

– In the recovery of the investment grade with Greece rising from the B’ National to the A’ National. The recovery of the investment grade creates a different investment audience for the Greek stock market as well and puts its upgrade in the developed markets on the final stretch, possibly in the summer of 2024. It forms the conditions to examine the scenario for placements in the Greek market by Investment Bodies, the passive index funds that adjust their investments to the main indices, representing 60 trillion. dollar!

At the same time, the project of joining A.A. in the Developed Markets, it will bring about changes in the share lists of Listed Companies, with what this implies for the quality of the investors who follow the Greek Market.

– The political risk in Greece is almost zero following the election result of June 2023, which forms the conditions for stable governance for a four-year period, in contrast to the uncertainty which will slowly come to the international scene, as elections will be held in sensitive geographical Zones, but also important Economies (Europe, USA, Russia, India, etc.), which are likely to cause reversals of the existing balances.

– Record results recorded by listed companies. Publicly traded companies handed out $2.95 billion in dividends in 2023, surpassing 2022’s $2.4 billion performance, which is also the highest since 2009, the last year before the Great Recession began. crisis, despite the fact that the four systemic banks continue not to distribute dividends.

The Listed Companies are on track for historic performance for yet another term, with boosted dividends and relatively low valuations.

– In the privatization program. The concentration of liquidity of more than 8 billion euros in the placement of 20% of National Bank constitutes a strong deposit for the successful outcome of the demanding share disposal projects of Piraeus Bank and El. Venizelos.

– In the fact that, after many years the Banks will be profitable, with single digit NPEs and with a promise of dividend distribution. 2024 will be the year when the dividend drought of the Banks will be broken after 15 years.

2024 will be the year when the dividend drought of the systemic Banks will be broken after 15 years. Despite the significant rise of banking stocks in 2023, in the main investment preferences for 2024, analysts choose the Banking sector as a key indicator of the trends of the Economy, but also because of the low valuations based on profitability.

The international houses

She is optimistic about the course of the Greek stock market Goldman Sachs and “sees” 1,550 points for the General Index in a 12-month horizon, against a previous forecast of 1,375 points.

Greece is the trend of 2024, Greek banks the big story according to JP Morgan. JP Morgan recommends an overweight recommendation for Greece from emerging markets, with an overweight recommendation for Greek banks, noting that Greek banking stocks are still at a high discount compared to Eurozone banks, given their higher profitability ratio their funds.

In fact, JPM estimates that the Greek shares participating in the MSCI EMEA index are expected to record the highest returns, with a rally of around 19% next year in the base scenario, while in the bull scenario the rally can reach 30%.

As a separate story of structural development in the emerging markets, he mentions Greece HSBC, maintaining an overweight position both for the country’s economic course and for Greek shares, underlining that the country is one of the preferred investment destinations. In the environment of emerging markets, Greek shares and especially Greek banks are among the biggest stories of the next period, at a time when they also have very attractive valuations.

The American investment bank Jefferies declares ‘bull’ on Greek banks, ‘jumps’ price targets and sees rally of up to 45%. After strong outperformance in 2023, Jefferies continues to see further upside for Greek bank stocks. New price targets are 8.80 euros for National Bank, from 7.40 euros, 2.25 euros for Eurobank, from 1.70 euros before, 2.25 euros for Alpha Bank, from 1.10 euros before and 4.45 euros for Piraeus, from 3.10 euros previously.

THE Morgan Stanley points out that Greek banks were a key theme in 2023 and it looks like they will stand out in 2024 as well. The investment bank gives a special place to Alpha Bank, positioning it as a top choice, not only in the domestic market, but globally. The target price for Alpha Bank is 1.99 euros. For Ethniki the target price is at 7.50 euros, at 4.16 euros for Piraeus and for Eurobank at 1.95 euros.

For Greek banks, JP Morgan gives an overweight recommendation and high price targets. For National Bank and Eurobank, it gives target prices at 8.10 euros and 2.60 euros, respectively for Alpha Bank at 2.20 euros.

THE Deutsche Bank gives a target price of 2 euros and a buy recommendation for Alpha Bank, 7.1 euros for the National Bank and a hold recommendation and 3.3 euros for Piraeus and a hold recommendation.

Goldman Sachs gives a Buy recommendation for Ethniki and Piraeus, Neutral for Eurobank, with target prices for their shares set for Ethniki at 8.40 euros, for Piraeus at 4.20 euros and Eurobank at 1 .90 euros.