The statements of G. Stournaras come in the wake of the announcements of data on inflation in the US which moved higher than estimates and led to a rapid readjustment of bets for monetary easing
The European Central Bank should not be afraid to differentiate its “excessively prudent” stance on interest rates from that of the FED, said Governor of the Bank of Greece and member of the ECB Governing Council, Yiannis Stournaras.
Speaking in Frankfurt, after yesterday’s clear signal from the ECB to cut interest rates in June, the Greek official reiterated that four cuts within the year are possible, despite investors around the world reducing their bets on rate cuts .
“Now is the time to diversify,” said G. Stournaras to Bloomberg. “Circumstances are completely different between the eurozone and the US. In America demand is stronger, mainly due to the boost from the budget. That’s not the case in Europe. And inflation in the eurozone is mainly supply-driven rather than demand-driven or from wages.”
G. Stournara’s statements follow the announcements of inflation data in the US, which moved higher than estimates and led to a rapid readjustment of bets for monetary relaxation. Markets now expect the eurozone to see three rate cuts in 2024, compared to fewer than two for the Fed.
Commenting on Thursday’s ECB decision, President Christine Lagarde confirmed that they are not taking a “line” from the other side of the Atlantic. However, he admitted that there are “multiple channels through which influence can be exerted” – not just exchange rate dynamics as the parity debate is getting louder.
“We are not dependent on the Fed,” Lagarde told reporters. “The United States is a very large market, a very large economy, a major financial center as well, so we take all of that into account.”
Speaking on Bloomberg TV on Friday, former ECB chief Jean-Claude Trichet highlighted the differences between the economic backdrops in the US and Europe.
“The goal is the same, the current situation is not the same,” he said. “We are on two ships that are not in the same place, even if they go to the same port.”
For Mr Stournara, the needs of the region’s 20-nation economies make the case for easing monetary policy more urgent. And while he still envisions a soft landing, he warns that waiting too long for interest rate cuts would jeopardize already anemic growth and the risk of inflation falling below the 2% target.
“We are seeing the first seeds of recovery in Europe, also in Germany,” said Mr Stournaras. “We don’t want to destroy these early seeds of recovery.”
Mr Stournaras is pushing for rate cuts in June and July, followed by two more before the end of the year – a view not shared by all 26 members of the Governing Council.
Source: Skai
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