The position of the Governor of the Bank of Greece G. Stournaras regarding the publication of personal forecasts for interest rates
The economic newspaper of Dusseldorf Handelsblatt hosts an article titled “Central bank governors criticize transparency campaign” and notes: “There are reservations among Eurozone central bankers about Isabelle Schnabel’s idea for more transparency. The member of the European Central Bank’s Executive Committee from Germany had suggests publishing personal interest rate forecasts. Greece’s central bank chief Yiannis Stournaras told Handelsblatt that doing so could “endanger the idea of ​​a single monetary policy”.
According to a report by the Reuters news agency, some heads of national central banks fear political pressure from their homeland in case they have to make forecasts about the course of interest rates in the future. … Schnabel, a member of the ECB’s Executive Committee, believes that central bankers should disclose more precisely than in the past how they think key interest rates will evolve. He made the proposal last week on the sidelines of the spring meeting of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in Washington.
And a little further down the paper cites the position of Mr. Stournara, who spoke to Handelsblatt and claimed that “he is basically open to discussing Ms. Schnabel’s proposal. Mr. Stournaras describes as “useful” the discussion on the advantages and disadvantages of possible alternatives in the communication of the ECB’s interest rate policy. However, he himself has some reservations. Inflation is already hard enough to predict. For this reason he asks “why should it be easier to predict key interest rates?” and “why should we add another element of uncertainty to our decisions?”.
Finally, Mr. Stournaras speaking to Handelsblatt stated that interest rate forecasts could “introduce a national element to the interpretation of our monetary policy decisions even if they were published anonymously. He also warned that instead of more clarity, interest rate forecasts could cause additional confusion.
Source: Skai
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