The international rating agency Fitch left the rating of the Greek economy unchanged, keeping the Greek debt stable at “BBB-“, with a “stable” outlook.
It is noted that the American rating agency gave Greek bonds investment grade six months ago (on December 1, 2023), which, in combination with the corresponding move made by S&P in October 2023, made it possible for them to be included in international indices tracked by large institutional investors.

According to the usual practice of international houses, there is a period of at least one year before the next upgrade.

In a statement, Fitch notes that Greece’s ratings reflect its higher-than-average BBB-rated per capita income and governance indicators as well as its policy credibility underpinned by its membership in the EU and the Eurozone. “These strengths are offset by the residuals from the sovereign debt crisis, which include high levels of public and external debt as well as high, albeit declining, unemployment, low medium-term growth potential and some persistent weaknesses in the banking sector,” he adds. .

Fitch adds that the overall general government deficit will continue to decline to 0.8% of GDP in 2025, with primary surpluses averaging 2.3% in 2024-2025 from 1.9% in 2023. “Recent performance was boosted by stronger-than-expected revenue receipts and cost containment.”

The house expects the combination of strong fiscal results, stable interest costs and moderate nominal growth to continue to drive public debt as a percentage of GDP downward, to 147.3% in 2025 from 161.9% in 2023 and below 140% in 2028.

In terms of growth, the house expects real GDP growth to be 2.3% in 2024 and 2.4% in 2025 versus 2% in 2023, well above the Eurozone average (1.1%), helping Greece achieve some income convergence. “Economic growth will be driven by increases in real wages, continued employment growth and strong investment,” it says.

For the banks, he notes that they have maintained a high liquidity position and strong profitability, boosted by higher interest rates, the completion of restructuring and the consolidation of their balance sheets.