The “bell” is rung by the economists who advise the French government on its finances. Specifically, they point out that France should immediately reduce its public deficit by 112 billion euros in the next 7 to 12 years, if it does not want to end up like Italy.

Unlike its southern neighbor, France can still avoid falling into the trap but must act quickly, the Council for Economic Analysis points out.

Last month, French President Emmanuel Macron’s government began to put public finances in order after years of high spending due to the pandemic and rising energy costs.

“The good news is that France is so far in control of its destiny,” wrote Council members Adrienne Auclair, Thomas Philippon and Xavier Rago. “Our debt is the direct consequence of our fiscal choices. It is not the mechanical accumulation of a snowball thrown down a steep hill” unlike Italy, where public debt continues to rise due to rising interest rates despite spending cuts.

Economists recommend the reduction of the primary deficit by 4% of the country’s GDP the next 7 to 12 years.

A faster cut would undermine growth, while a slower one would result in too much being spent to pay down the debt, they said.

Whether these recommendations will be heeded remains to be seen.

Along with six other countries, France already faces the EU’s excessive deficit procedure for breaching public spending rules. Outgoing finance minister Bruno Le Maire has already promised Brussels to reduce France’s deficit to 3% of GDP and meet EU deficit rules by 2027.

Last week, France’s Court of Auditors criticized the government, saying it had failed to effectively cut spending and that its promises to reduce debt for the future were “unrealistic”.