The consequences of the war in Ukraine for global tourism

The Russian invasion of Ukraine impacts political, economic and commercial issues around the world. Financial markets have also been affected, and apparently no economic sector is immune. Certainly, human losses are the main burden of war. But along with the humanitarian catastrophe, the economic effects are already beginning to be felt in many sectors.

Asking how the travel industry, often seen as a luxury, will fare, seems inappropriate at this point. “These issues are overshadowed by the many people dying and hundreds of thousands fleeing Ukraine. That’s what really matters now,” says Marten Lange-Siebenthaler of Dreizackreisen, a travel agency specializing in Eastern European destinations.

However, the livelihoods of millions of people in Europe depend solely on tourism and travel, which is why travel agencies, airlines, hotels and cruise operators are concerned.

After two years of a pandemic that devastated much of the tourism industry, the war in Ukraine is a new blow to the sector.

Strike in the aeronautical industry

After the outbreak of the war, Dreizackreisen stopped offering vacation packages to Belarus, Russia and Ukraine. Many other travel agencies have done the same. Ukraine, however, has never been a major vacation destination, says Siebenthaler. Instead, it tended to attract visitors interested in the country’s culture. But, alongside the tourism industry itself, there is the airline sector.

Russian attacks on Ukraine and growing calls for a no-fly zone have serious ramifications for the aviation industry.

Civilian aircraft from Germany and at least 35 other nations — including France, Poland, Finland and Canada — have been banned from Russian airspace. Last weekend, the European Union, in turn, prevented Russian planes from flying over or landing on the territory of the European bloc. Many countries did the same. On Tuesday, it was the United States’ turn to ban Russian aircraft from its airspace.

On February 24, immediately after the Russian military began its attack on Ukraine, EASA (European Aviation Safety Agency) warned airlines not to fly close to the war zone, urging “extreme caution”.

The warning extends to Moldova and Belarus airspace and will remain in effect for 90 days unless the agency reassesss the security situation.

Airlines now expect a long blockade of east-west flight routes. These restrictions will put additional pressure on carriers, according to Wolf-Dietrich Kindt of the Federation of the German Aviation Industry (BDL).

“Flights bound for the Far East, which normally pass through Russia, need to bypass the area using alternate routes,” says Kindt. “That means flights will take longer and cover longer distances, which increases fuel consumption and costs for carriers,” she explains.

Longer flights, higher fuel costs

Lufthansa, Germany’s largest airline, states on its website that on “Flights to the Far East, there may be short-term changes in departure and arrival times due to rescheduling of flight routes”. A Lufthansa spokeswoman told DW that the company estimates flights to the South Korean capital Seoul will take 90 minutes longer than usual. And travelers to Tokyo will have to prepare for up to two extra hours of travel.

The war in Ukraine has also sent oil prices soaring, temporarily passing the $100 a barrel mark. This rise in fuel costs will further put pressure on the aviation industry, which is slowly recovering from months of pandemic-related travel restrictions.

Despite the grim circumstances, the BDL spokesman assures tourists not to worry about visiting the continent: “Europe is open and safe. We are welcoming all guests,” he said.

Indeed, tourism experts have confirmed that trips to Poland or the Baltic countries, for example, remain possible. Tourists should, however, keep in mind that the humanitarian crisis unfolding in Ukraine is spreading to neighboring countries. So far, more than 1 million people have fled the war-torn country.

canceled cruises

Cruise lines also responded to the new situation. Norwegian Cruise Line has canceled all voyages to Russia. Soon after, TUI Cruises, MSC Cruises and AIDA Cruises followed suit. None of its ships will call at the port of St Petersburg this year.

Phoenix Reisen, a German agency that offers sea and river cruises, canceled tours along Russia’s Volga River in April and May. A company spokeswoman said further measures could follow.

After slowly recovering from the economic hardship caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, the travel industry faces even more uncertainty as images of the war stir potential travelers. Indeed, the German Travel Association (DRV) recently issued a statement expressing hope that “diplomacy will prevail and that Russian military operations in Ukraine will be stopped.”

In light of the rapidly developing situation, travelers are advised to seek up-to-date information from reliable sources before boarding. Several European countries have asked citizens to leave Ukraine. France and the US have also advised their citizens to leave Russia. Germany discourages travel to Russia and explicitly warns against going to the south of the country, on the border with Ukraine.