Despite the Chamber having approved the PEC (proposed amendment to the Constitution) of the Precatório, which releases more public spending, members of the government already have a setback in the Senate.
In the assessment of interlocutors at the Palácio do Planalto, the House should not be able to approve the proposal within the deadline for the R$ 400 Brazilian Aid to be paid in December.
The PEC dos Precatórios, a proposal that defaults on judicial debts of the Union, is currently the main agenda of interest of President Jair Bolsonaro (no party) in Congress.
It authorizes the government to spend more and makes possible government promises in the social area that seek to boost Bolsonaro’s reelection campaign in 2022.
The assessment of government articulators is that, in the current scenario, the Senate should not give the necessary speed to the proposal, as expressed by the President of the House, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG).
In late October, Minister João Roma (Citizenship) appealed to Congress to approve the measure by the second week of November. Right now, Pacheco isn’t even in Brazil — he’s taking part in COP26 in Glasgow.
Therefore, the government will prepare an MP (provisional measure) that opens resources so that the value of Brazil Aid in December reaches the minimum level of R$ 400 per family. This should be outside the spending ceiling — a rule that curbs the growth of public spending.
The idea is that Auxílio Brasil, which is already within the Budget, is used to pay the average benefit, which will increase to around R$ 210 per month. The MP would give the additional amount to reach R$400 monthly.
According to reports from senators to the sheet, the government also intends to use this MP as a way to pressure the plenary to approve the Calote PEC as soon as possible.
The strategy would be used to convince mainly the caucus refractory to flexibilities that affect fiscal responsibility.
The argument used is that, if the government has to resort to a MP to fund the turbocharged Brazil Auxílio, the financial market will become more volatile, which could negatively impact the exchange rate and interest rates.
This Wednesday (10), the Minister of Citizenship said, upon leaving Planalto, that if the analysis of the proposal was delayed in the Senate, it would make payment of the benefit in December unfeasible.
“If this procedure [no Senado] if extended until next month, this will make it impossible for the benefit of R$ 400 to reach Brazilians in December,” stated Roma.
“It is up to the Federal Senate to have the sensitivity and to add all efforts so that this measure is analyzed as soon as possible, but it is not up to anyone in the Executive Branch to dictate the rules of the Legislative House,” he said.
Palácio do Planalto is still working with the possibility of issuing a new decree declaring the state of public calamity to loosen budget rules at the end of this year and in 2022.
That would lift the fiscal shackles that currently prevent Bolsonaro from spending more on programs aimed at regaining his lost popularity.
Palace assistants hope that, given the deadline, the president of the Senate will commit to voting on the measure. But realistically, they find this scenario less likely.
At the Ministry of Economy, the hypothesis of a new state of calamity is largely rejected. Technicians say that no one in the portfolio would agree to sign an act related to this. There is a fear that the act will be considered irregular in the future.
The doubts raised by technicians from the economic team are related to the argument to be used by the government to decree the calamity.
The state of calamity lasted from the start of the Covid-19 pandemic to December 31, 2020.
Since January 2021, the resources to pay emergency aid and expand healthcare expenses to combat the coronavirus were released by an extraordinary credit MP, that is, money outside the spending ceiling. But without the need to decree calamity.
In a scenario in which the PEC will not even be approved until early 2022, members of the Ministry of Economy say that an adjustment in the Budget will be necessary. This adjustment may be with a cut in the budget for parliamentary amendments.
Next year’s Budget project has already been prepared within the limit determined by the spending ceiling. But there is a need to increase the forecast of mandatory expenses, such as retirement and pensions, which are linked to inflation (accelerating in this second semester).
As the PEC makes room for more spending, the rejection or dehydration of the proposal would require a scissor of the 2022 Budget, which is already tight.
However, officially, government leaders in the Senate say they believe that the PEC dos Precatório can be approved by December 2nd. In this case, the vote would take place during the period of concentrated effort in the House for the voting of official roundtables, taking advantage of the high quorum.
On Wednesday, it was decided that the PEC will be processed in the CCJ (Committee on Constitution and Justice) of the Senate, before being sent to the plenary. This procedure was a demand of bench leaders, who opposed what they describe as “running over” the analysis.
The president of the CCJ, Davi Alcolumbre (DEM-AP), stated that the commission will analyze the PEC dos Precatório on the 24th. The rapporteur will be the leader of the government in the Senate, Fernando Bezerra (MDB-PE).
Bezerra also stated that there is a “very good chance” that the text approved by the Chamber of Deputies will be kept by the senators, thus preventing the proposal from having to be sent back to that Legislative House. However, he said he was open to “improvements”.
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